FXUS64 KOHX 191601 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1101 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1033 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - Dangerous heat continues this afternoon with heat indices ranging from 105 to 110 degrees west of the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures begin a decline on Wednesday. - Rain chances return across the far west and northwest this afternoon with low to medium rain chances continuing Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Thunderstorms may produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. - Temperatures near-normal are forecast mid to late week, with even cooler weather favored into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1033 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 High pressure continues its dominance over the area today, resulting in one more day of dangerous heat. Readings this morning are already nearing 90, and heat indices will be brutal west of the Plateau with feels-like temperatures generally ranging from 105 to 110. CAMs and ensemble guidance are in poor agreement regarding thunderstorm development this afternoon ahead of an approaching front with some suggesting scattered activity and others keeping the area completely dry. Do think that the environment is favorable enough to support at least isolated storms across the northwest this afternoon. Weak shear and poor mid-level lapse rates will keep the severe weather threat very low, but a brief strong storm could be capable of gusty winds and heavy downpours. The aforementioned front pushes south through the area late tonight and into early Wednesday. This front will keep a 20-40% chance for rain and thunderstorms across most of the area tonight. As the front continues to push south, northerly winds and drier air settle in behind it, focusing Wednesday afternoon's storms mainly along and south of I-40 and across the Plateau. Thanks to this cooler air, this heat wave will finally break with Wednesday's high temperatures reaching into the low-90s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1033 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Drier and cooler northerly flow continues Thursday and through the weekend. This helps keep high temperatures in the upper-80s to mid-90s each day. Most of the area should even remain dry with only 20-40% storm chances being maintained in the forecast, mainly across the far south and along the Plateau where enough moisture will still reside. And then the real pattern change everyone is waiting for finally arrives. A large upper-level trough tracks through the Great Lakes/southern Canada area, sending a stronger front south through the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys early next week. High temperatures will cool off into the low and mid-80s with morning lows in the 50s to low-60s. Even more, dewpoints will only be in the 50s as well giving us an early taste of fall! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Patchy fog is causing MVFR conditions across the Plateau, and this will diminish between 12Z and 14Z. There's a 30-40% chance for thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly focused across northwest Middle TN. Thus, only included a PROB30 group in at CKV. Rain and a few thunderstorms will continue overnight ahead of an approaching front. Again, confidence is highest in rain at CKV through the overnight hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 99 75 94 71 / 10 30 50 10 Clarksville 99 73 92 68 / 20 50 30 10 Crossville 90 69 86 66 / 10 10 70 20 Columbia 99 73 94 70 / 10 20 60 20 Cookeville 92 71 88 67 / 10 20 60 10 Jamestown 91 69 86 65 / 10 10 60 10 Lawrenceburg 96 72 93 69 /10 20 60 20 Murfreesboro 99 73 94 70 / 10 20 60 10 Waverly 99 72 92 68 / 20 50 40 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ005>009-023>030- 056>062-075-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Clements