FXUS64 KOHX 191109 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 609 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 603 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - Dangerous heat continues Tuesday with afternoon heat indices ranging from 105 to 110 degrees west of the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures begin a decline on Wednesday. - Rain chances return across the far west and northwest Tuesday, with low to medium rain chances continuing Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Thunderstorms may produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. - Temperatures near-normal are forecast mid to late week, with even cooler weather favored into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 A broad upper-level ridge remains in place across much of the CONUS which continues to favor our above-normal temperatures across Middle Tennessee. Excessive heat will continue again on Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s across the Plateau to the upper 90s west of the Plateau. Heat indicies in the low to upper 100s are forecast Tuesday afternoon. Latest guidance is starting to suggest a faster approach of a front near the Ohio River on Tuesday. This is good news as rain/storm chances begin to increase west of I-65, but mainly near the Tennessee River, during the afternoon hours. Isolated to locally scattered showers/storms are now expected ahead of the front which could allow for pockets of cooler temperatures. This front is forecast to approach Middle Tennessee Tuesday night into Wednesday morning which could favor overnight convection as well. I think best chances for showers/storms should stay along and south of I-40 for Wednesday afternoon with northerly winds providing drier air into Wednesday night. Forecast highs for Wednesday have dropped a few degrees from previous. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 An elongated upper-level shortwave will work into the region on Thursday behind the front that should settle to our south. This will begin a period of more seasonal temperatures across Middle Tennessee that appear to stick around into the weekend. Only low to medium chances for rain/storms are in the forecast through these days, generally across the south and along the Plateau where best available moisture is in place to support diurnal activity. Medium-range guidance continues to depict a more significant upper-level trough to move into the eastern CONUS on Sunday with a fairly evident continental air mass to sweep through the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and into the Tennessee Valley by Monday morning. A noticeable reduction in dewpoints is possible with latest forecast dewpoints dipping well into the 50s. This pattern change will support below-normal temperatures across a large region, including us here in Middle Tennessee. We have lows in the 50s and 60s in our forecast for Monday and Tuesday mornings next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Patchy fog is causing MVFR conditions across the Plateau, and this will diminish between 12Z and 14Z. There's a 30-40% chance for thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly focused across northwest Middle TN. Thus, only included a PROB30 group in at CKV. Rain and a few thunderstorms will continue overnight ahead of an approaching front. Again, confidence is highest in rain at CKV through the overnight hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 99 75 94 72 / 10 20 60 10 Clarksville 99 73 91 69 / 10 40 40 10 Crossville 90 69 86 67 / 10 10 70 20 Columbia 99 73 94 70 / 10 20 60 20 Cookeville 92 71 89 68 / 10 10 70 20 Jamestown 91 69 86 67 / 10 10 70 20 Lawrenceburg 96 72 93 69 / 10 20 70 20 Murfreesboro 99 73 94 70 / 10 20 70 20 Waverly 99 72 92 68 / 10 40 50 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ005>009-023>030- 056>062-075-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Clements