FXUS64 KOHX 110422 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1022 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1008 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 - Low chance for snow across the Upper Cumberland Plateau tonight through early Thursday morning. Accumulations expected to be less than a half inch. - Another cold front will impact the region this weekend, bringing the coldest air of the season so far Saturday night through Monday morning, with widespread lows in the teens to single digits. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1008 PM CST Wed Dec 102025 With an upper-level trough tracking through the Ohio Valley, a cold front has made it through Middle TN. Breezy northerly to northwesterly winds are in place behind the front, but these should continue to diminish overnight. There is a low chance for snow showers across the upper Plateau with favorable upslope flow in place. A big limiting factor though is the amount of moisture available. This evening's 00Z sounding still shows a lot of dry air, particularly above -10C. Model soundings across the Plateau show a similar story as well with the lack of moisture. Recent CAM runs have backed off on the snow potential tonight with only a low 10-20% chance of accumulations greater than a half inch in the higher elevations. Any light showers overnight will diminish by early Thursday morning, and in the wake of the front, a cooler day will be in store as highs only warm into the 40s with upper-30s along the Plateau. A shortwave tracks through the Ohio Valley Thursday night. The bulk of the moisture and precipitation still looks to stay to our north with just a low chance (20-30%) for additional snow showers maintained in the forecast for the Plateau near the KY border. Little if any accumulations are expected before any showers end by early Friday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Thursday) Issued at 1008 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Highs on Friday will warm into the 50s, but don't get used to it. A cold front will dive south, bringing a blast of the coldest air of the season so far for this weekend. Saturday night, lows will drop into the teens with highs on Sunday only making into the 20s. Temperatures fall into the teens and even single digits again Sunday night. Temperatures won't warm back up above freezing again until around noon on Monday. This means that the area will have about 36 consecutive hours of temperatures below freezing. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding precipitation Saturday night with a shortwave clipping our area to the north. The forecast this evening has a low chance (15-30%) for precipitation Saturday night, and with temperatures plummeting during this time frame, precipitation type would be snow or even a wintry mix before temperatures are able to fall completely below freezing. Models are in wide disagreement over precipitation chances, and as such, probabilities for any impactful accumulations at this time are very low. Surface winds turn southerly again on Monday, allowing temperatures to rebound back into the 40s and 50s next week. As far as our next chance of rain, that looks to come on Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 The cold front has completed its passage through Middle TN, and winds are now out of the NW at all terminals. A thick MVFR cloud deck continues to fill into the area, and cigs between 020-025 are expected at all terminals overnight. VFR cigs look to return after 12Z with a few pockets of VFR cigs possible before then. Low chance of snow showers overnight at SRB and CSV, prob30 groups have been included in the taf for this. Gusts between 20-25 kts will relax overthe next few hours with lighter winds anticipated overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 27 45 37 57 / 0 10 10 0 Clarksville 26 44 36 53 / 0 10 10 0 Crossville 25 39 30 51 / 10 10 10 0 Columbia 26 47 35 57 / 0 0 10 0 Cookeville 25 40 32 52 / 10 10 20 0 Jamestown 25 37 30 50 / 20 10 30 0 Lawrenceburg 25 46 34 58 / 0 0 10 0 Murfreesboro 26 45 35 57 / 0 10 10 0 Waverly 26 44 36 54 / 0 0 10 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Baggett