FXUS64 KOHX 070204 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 904 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 901 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 - River flooding will be the main concern for the next several days. && .UPDATE... Issued at 901 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 No changes for the evening update. Scattered light showers and drizzle will be around for several more hours, but in the grand scheme of things, it's pretty quiet out there. Cooler weather is on the way. More with the full forecast package in a few hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1056 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Wow! The last several days have been busy needless to say. Rainfall totals for northwest middle TN will be 10 inches or greater for the event. Something to remember for quite some time. A couple of quick COOP calculations: Dover 11.06" Clarksville 10.12" Montgomery Bell State Park 7.48" Whitehouse 7.74" and our office at Old Hickory 6.42". There could still be a few lingering showers today and this afternoon. SPC has removed the slight from middle TN and only has general thunder for the rest of Day 1. Clouds will hang out tonight and finally begin to clear tomorrow. Temperatures behind this cold front will be much cooler than what we have been experiencing. Highs today will range from the lower 50s NW to middle to upper 60s on the plateau. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle 40s area wide...and highs tomorrow will pretty much be in the 50s to lower 60s along the river. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1056 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 High pressure builds in and temperatures will "stay steady and slightly warm" through the work week. With clear skies lows Tuesday and Wednesday morning will be in the upper 20s for the Plateau and 30s elsewhere. This means there could be some frost. We don/t officially start spring frost freeze products until 1 May...so this is not out of the ordinary...just something worth noting. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be below climatology...and only on the upper 40s for the Plateau and 50s elsewhere. With northerly winds this will feel kind of chilly. Wednesday will be the warmest day with highs in the 60s and southerly winds. Another low and cold front is expected Thursday and Thursday night. This will bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms. This should be a fast moving system and not too much instability so no severe weather is expected. Rainfall amounts will be light a couple of tenths or so. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 IFR conditions dominate Middle TN airports this evening, and this will be the primary theme for the next several hours due to low cigs. There's also patches of drizzle and light rain in the area which could lead to brief reduction in vis, as well as wet runways. I've used TEMPOs for BNA and MQY for light rain. Winds remain N to NNW at 5-10 kts. Improvement in weather should begin tomorrow morning, with clearing from the northwest. I have BNA returning to MVFR by around 16z, then to VFR at around 20z, as clouds continue to clear. Similar TAFs for CKV and MQY, though eastern airfields (SRB, CSV) may not return to VFR until after 00z tomorrow (next TAF cycle). Winds will continue a northerly direction tomorrow at 7-12 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 45 59 34 55 / 40 0 0 0 Clarksville 41 59 32 54 / 30 0 0 0 Crossville 45 51 29 49 / 50 20 0 0 Columbia 44 58 34 54 / 40 0 0 0 Cookeville 44 53 30 49 / 50 10 0 0 Jamestown 42 52 28 48 / 60 10 10 0 Lawrenceburg 45 57 35 53 / 40 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 44 58 33 54 / 40 10 0 0 Waverly 42 59 33 54 / 30 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Unger SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION.....Sizemore