FXUS64 KOHX 060332 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1032 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1026 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 - High chance for rain and thunderstorms through Wednesday evening with a low chance for strong to severe storms. Main threats are damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. - Drier and cooler conditions return Thursday. - Next chance of rain arrives Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 A cold front is currently approaching the Mississippi River, and ahead of it, scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across Middle TN. The front will slowly makes its way through the area tonight and into tomorrow, and as it does, thunderstorm coverage will increase. There is marginal instability that looks to develop along the cold front along with increasing shear which still supports a low chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm overnight - primarily west of I-65. Main threat is strong winds, but locally heavy rainfall is also possible. High rain and thunderstorm chances continue into tomorrow as the cold front continues to make its way through Middle TN. There does remain a low severe weather threat Wednesday, primarily for areas south of I-40. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the primary severe weather threat for the day still looks to be south of TN where models continue to build the highest instability and shear ahead of the front that should clear our area by mid-afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will taper off west to east by late Wednesday night, and by the end of it, rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are still forecast. Over 2 inches of rain isn't out of the question, especially for southern Middle TN where probabilities of exceeding 2 inches by Thursday morning is about 40-60%. Hopefully this rain is good news for the ongoing drought. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Drier conditions return Thursday, and temperatures will be cooler behind the system. Highs on Thursday will be in the 60s, but we will warm back up into the 70s and near 80 Friday and into the weekend. As far as our next chance of rain, that looks to arrive on Sunday as a trough and another cold front tracks through the Ohio Valley. Still a ways out to get into the details, but we'll definitely take the rain. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Look for deteriorating conditions across Middle Tennessee as a surface boundary approaches the mid state from the northwest and slowly pushes across the area from later this evening until mid- day tomorrow, although additional active weather will persist through tomorrow afternoon and into the evening. So look for worsening ceilings and also lower visibilities at times. We have included TS/CBs for KCKV only, as the TS probabilities elsewhere are simply too low to warrant mention in the TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 58 67 50 69 / 100 80 70 0 Clarksville 53 65 47 68 / 100 60 40 0 Crossville 58 68 49 64 / 90 100 90 10 Columbia 60 69 50 69 / 100 90 80 0 Cookeville 59 66 50 65 / 100 90 90 0 Jamestown 57 67 47 64 / 90 100 80 0 Lawrenceburg 62 69 51 68 / 90 90 80 0 Murfreesboro 60 69 51 69 / 100 90 80 0 Waverly 53 65 48 68 / 100 70 70 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Rose