FXUS64 KOHX 052359 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 659 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 640 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 - High rain and storm chances will develop later tonight. There is a low risk of severe storms this evening and into the overnight hours, mainly in areas west of I-65. The primary threat is thunderstorm winds gusts. - Rain and storms will continue on Wednesday and into Wednesday evening. There is a low risk of severe storms across the majority of Middle Tennessee, mainly during the afternoon and evening. Again, the primary threat is thunderstorms wind gusts. There is also a low risk of flooding with some of the heavier cells. - Cooler temperatures will settle in toward the end of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 This evening, a surface boundary is situated right along the Ohio Valley, with a quasi-zonal, diffluent flow at 500 mb across Middle Tennessee. Already, we are seeing increase in radar activity, with a few cells even producing lightning already. The surface boundary will take its time pushing through the mid state, from later this evening until midday tomorrow. However, there will still be quite a bit of post-frontal activity tomorrow and into tomorrow evening as an upper trough comes across the region behind the surface boundary and interacts with the residual moisture to produce additional activity. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 A weakening cluster of showers and embedded storms is now moving across western Tennessee toward the Tennessee River. This convection is dwindling due to lack of instability and encountering drier air as it moves east. However, this initial wave will nudge higher PWs into the area which will help foster additional development this afternoon. Scattered showers are possible, and there's increasing coverage expected this evening into the overnight hours as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front should also provide a corridor for a weak, elongated surface low to move into the area along with increasing instability and low-level jet winds. A few strong storms are possible for areas west of I-65, but the overall severe threat is low. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, however. Continued chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected across Middle Tennessee tomorrow. This includes low severe weather chances for southern Middle Tennessee. Severe weather will be somewhat conditional on how well the airmass recovers during the afternoon and there's some uncertainty on that. There's also a trend in hi-res guidance for the highest instability/shear values to be farther south and further suppressed by remnant convective outflow. This is certainly good news for Middle Tennessee, but we'll still be watching how things go tomorrow. Hopefully beneficial rains at the least. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 The primary trough axis will be working its way east on Wednesday night into Thursday which will push the cold front to our south and east. We'll be cooler and stable to end the work week. Warming temperatures are expected this weekend once high pressure moves east and southerly low-level flow returns. The next rain chance will be Sunday into Monday but it's too early to predict any trouble makers this far in advance. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Look for deteriorating conditions across Middle Tennessee as a surface boundary approaches the mid state from the northwest and slowly pushes across the area from later this evening until mid- day tomorrow, although additional activeweather will persist through tomorrow afternoon and into the evening. So look for worsening ceilings and also lower visibilities at times. We have included TS/CBs for KCKV only, as the TS probabilities elsewhere are simply too low to warrant mention in the TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 58 70 50 67 / 90 90 80 20 Clarksville 53 65 47 66 / 90 70 70 10 Crossville 58 68 51 62 / 80 100 90 40 Columbia 60 71 51 68 / 90 90 80 20 Cookeville 59 69 51 63 / 90 100 80 30 Jamestown 57 68 48 62 / 90 100 80 40 Lawrenceburg 62 71 52 66 / 80 100 90 20 Murfreesboro 60 71 51 67 / 80 90 80 30 Waverly 53 63 48 66 / 100 80 90 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Rose SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Rose