FXUS64 KOHX 051720 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1220 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1215 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 - High rain and storm chances through Wednesday night. Localized flooding is possible. The severe weather threat is low. - Cooler weather Wednesday through Friday with a brief warm-up this weekend. - Low to medium rain and storm chances Sunday and Monday. No hazardous weather expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 A weakening cluster of showers and embedded storms is now moving across western Tennessee toward the Tennessee River. This convection is dwindling due to lack of instability and encountering drier air as it moves east. However, this initial wave will nudge higher PWs into the area which will help foster additional development this afternoon. Scattered showers are possible, and there's increasing coverage expected this evening into the overnight hours as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front should also provide a corridor for a weak, elongated surface low to move into the area along with increasing instability and low-level jet winds. A few strong storms are possible for areas west of I-65, but the overall severe threat is low. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, however. Continued chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected across Middle Tennessee tomorrow. This includes low severe weather chances for southern Middle Tennessee. Severe weather will be somewhat conditional on how well the airmass recovers during the afternoon and there's some uncertainty on that. There's also a trend in hi-res guidance for the highest instability/shear values to be farther south and further suppressed by remnant convective outflow. This is certainly good news for Middle Tennessee, but we'll still be watching how things go tomorrow. Hopefully beneficial rains at the least. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 The primary trough axis will be working its way east on Wednesday night into Thursday which will push the cold front to our south and east. We'll be cooler and stable to end the work week. Warming temperatures are expected this weekend once high pressure moves east and southerly low-level flow returns. The next rain chance will be Sunday into Monday but it's too early to predict any trouble makers this far in advance. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 VFR conditions currently as showers move into Middle TN from the west. Satellite and radar show a diminishing trend as showers move east, but more widespread showers and some thunderstorms are still expected through the overnight. Confidence is low whether any specific terminal will see any thunder, so have included PROB30 for -TSRA for now. Will try and get a better idea of timing with next issuance. Low CIGS develop overnight after 06z from west to east, with showers lingering around through Wednesday. Widespread IFR to LIFR develops after 12z Wednesday and continues through the end of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 58 70 50 67 / 90 90 80 20 Clarksville 53 65 47 66 / 90 70 70 10 Crossville 58 68 51 62 / 80 100 90 40 Columbia 60 71 51 68 / 90 90 80 20 Cookeville 59 69 51 63 / 90 100 80 30 Jamestown 57 68 48 62 / 90 100 80 40 Lawrenceburg 62 71 52 66 / 80 100 90 20 Murfreesboro 60 71 51 67 / 80 90 80 30 Waverly 53 63 48 66 / 100 80 90 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Cravens