FXUS64 KOHX 050452 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1152 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1138 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 - High rain and storm chances Tuesday & Wednesday. Some localized flooding is possible. The severe weather threat is low. - Cooler weather will resume Wednesday and stay through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Today's strong southwesterly flow brought warmer temperatures back into Middle TN, thus overnight lows will be a tad warmer, in the mid 50s. Our weather becomes more active Tuesday as the first of a series of waves drives scattered showers and storms into the area by the afternoon. A cold front over the midwest will begin moving southeast, helping increase warm, moist air advection, driving PWAT values up into anomalously high ranges, between 1.5" - 1.6". As the front draws closer to the area, the low-level jet will increase to near 50 kts and the remnants of what appear to be a decaying MCS will clip our southwest counties overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Given the night timing, instability on the whole will be limited and mostly elevated. However, should storms before more surface-based, there is a low risk of severe wind and perhaps a tornado. Low-level helicity during this time will be near 300 with bulk shear values near 40 kts. This will be something to monitor with it being an overnight scenario. Confidence on this is low considering how capped we will be and how limited instability may be. By Wednesday, storm mode appears messy and uncertain as a lot will depend on where the front decides to set up across the area and how much shower activity is around. If we end up falling on the north side of the front, instability will be all but shut off and we'll be mostly dealing with a rain event. Should any part of our area fall south of the low, and that scenario appears possible, there will be a better chance for severe storms to develop given the environment. As of right now, models favor areas south of I-40 to fall south of the front. This will certainly be a conditional set up with instability, or the lack thereof, being the main concern. Should there be enough instability for more discrete storms to fire out ahead of the front, the environment will be conducive for severe winds (primary threat) and possibly a tornado (lower threat) given favorable wind profiles. Similar to Tuesday night, we will be dealing with a cap aloft that will hopefully keep a lid on things. As the front approaches Wednesday evening, rain and storms will become more widespread across Middle TN with instability really dropping off. With regards to flooding, efficient rainfall rates can be expected with such high atmospheric moisture content, but given the drought, widespread flooding is unlikely. There will be instances of ponding on roads and minor flooding in poor drainage areas, however. Rainfall amounts will range between 1.5-2.5" with the highest totals falling south of I-40. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 The front will clear the area Thursday with lingering post-frontal showers around. Things will cool off and quiet down as we end the week with temperatures falling back into the 60s/70s Thursday and Friday. We will start warming back up heading into the weekend and most of the weekend looks pretty dry. Our next chance for more widespread rain will come Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 TAFs are VFR for tonight and much of the day tomorrow. Winds have increased considerably from the SW today and are likely to stay up overnight, so don't look for any radiation fog. Rain chances will increase tomorrow from northwest to southeast as a surface boundary approaches Middle Tennessee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 57 75 61 69 / 0 60 90 100 Clarksville 57 73 54 64 / 10 90 100 90 Crossville 51 73 57 69 / 0 40 80 100 Columbia 55 75 61 72 / 0 50 80 100 Cookeville 54 74 59 68 / 0 50 90 100 Jamestown 53 74 57 68 / 0 50 90 100 Lawrenceburg 55 75 61 72 / 0 40 80 100 Murfreesboro 55 77 61 71 / 0 50 80 100 Waverly 58 73 54 64 / 0 80 90 90 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Rose