FXUS64 KOHX 042327 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 627 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 621 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 - There are high rain and storm chances Tuesday & Wednesday. Some localized flooding is possible. The severe weather threat is low. - Cooler weather will resume Wednesday and stay through the end of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Surface high pressure has retreated eastward, and that has set us up with a strong southwesterly flow this afternoon. Winds will likely stay up overnight and continue from the southwest tomorrow as a surface boundary approaches Middle Tennessee from the northwest. Rain chances will start to increase during the day Tuesday from northwest to southeast, then become more predominant by tomorrow evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 We're in a broad split-flow aloft today, and relatively zonal, as we transition in the upper-levels through tomorrow. This coincides with a low-level ridge building off to our southeast which is promoting a strengthening southerly breeze and warmer temperatures this afternoon. By tomorrow morning a cold front will move southeast from the Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley. Continued southerly to southwesterly low-level flow is expected across Middle Tennessee which will raise tropospheric moisture values and humidity at the surface. PWs in the 1.4" to 1.6" are expected to move in from the west. Meanwhile, a weak surface low is forecast to propagate east along the stalling front throughout the day. This should bring scattered convection closer to Middle Tennessee, near the moisture axis. This is good news considering we need any rain we can possibly get. We don't expect any severe weather or flooding with this initial round of rain/storms. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 It looks like the best overall chances for rain and storms will be tomorrow night into Wednesday as the front gradually moves closer to Middle Tennessee with subsequent shortwave disturbances aloft expected. These will encourage additional convective development along the moisture/instability axis. There's still some uncertainty about storm evolution on Wednesday as showers and storms will be possible along the stalled front, but it's unclear how much recovery can occur along/south of the front to foster strong to severe storms. Best overall chances for a severe storm will be south of I-40 on Wednesday. We'll also watching for any training storms that may produce locally heavy rainfall and flooding. This would be an isolated occurrence given that ongoing drought is a big inhibitor to any organized flooding concerns. However, any high rainfall rates, especially in urban or poor- drainage areas, could result in minor flooding. This front will finally be nudged out of the region on Thursday with a large dip in the Polar jet swinging through. We'll have a period of cooler, stable weather to finish off the week, though low rain chances are back in the forecast early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 TAFs are VFR for tonight and much of the day tomorrow. Winds have increased considerably from the SW today and are likely to stay up overnight, so don't look for any radiation fog. Rain chances will increase tomorrow from northwest to southeast as a surface boundary approaches Middle Tennessee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 58 77 60 72 / 0 60 90 90 Clarksville 58 74 54 65 / 10 80 90 80 Crossville 52 72 57 69 / 0 40 90 100 Columbia 56 75 61 72 / 050 80 90 Cookeville 54 73 59 69 / 0 40 90 90 Jamestown 54 74 56 69 / 0 50 90 100 Lawrenceburg 55 75 62 73 / 0 40 80 90 Murfreesboro 56 76 61 72 / 0 50 90 90 Waverly 59 73 55 67 / 10 70 100 90 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Rose SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Rose