FXUS64 KOHX 041717 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1217 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1217 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 - Warm and dry today with an afternoon breeze. - High rain and storm chances Tuesday & Wednesday. Some localized flooding is possible. The severe weather threat is low. - Cooler weather will resume Wednesday and stay through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 We're in a broad split-flow aloft today, and relatively zonal, as we transition in the upper-levels through tomorrow. This coincides with a low-level ridge building off to our southeast which is promoting a strengthening southerly breeze and warmer temperatures this afternoon. By tomorrow morning a cold front will move southeast from the Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley. Continued southerly to southwesterly low-level flow is expected across Middle Tennessee which will raise tropospheric moisture values and humidity at the surface. PWs in the 1.4" to 1.6" are expected to move in from the west. Meanwhile, a weak surface low is forecast to propagate east along the stalling front throughout the day. This should bring scattered convection closer to Middle Tennessee, near the moisture axis. This is good news considering we need any rain we can possibly get. We don't expect any severe weather or flooding with this initial round of rain/storms. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 It looks like the best overall chances for rain and storms will be tomorrow night into Wednesday as the front gradually moves closer to Middle Tennessee with subsequent shortwave disturbances aloft expected. These will encourage additional convective development along the moisture/instability axis. There's still some uncertainty about storm evolution on Wednesday as showers and storms will be possible along the stalled front, but it's unclear how much recovery can occur along/south of the front to foster strong to severe storms. Best overall chances for a severe storm will be south of I-40 on Wednesday. We'll also watching for any training storms that may produce locally heavy rainfall and flooding. This would be an isolated occurrence given that ongoing drought is a big inhibitor to any organized flooding concerns. However, any high rainfall rates, especially in urban or poor- drainage areas, could result in minor flooding. This front will finally be nudged out of the region on Thursday with a large dip in the Polar jet swinging through. We'll have a period of cooler, stable weather to finish off the week, though low rain chances are back in the forecast early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Gusty winds today with VFR conditions otherwise. Could see some gusts up to 25 knots out of the SW through 0z. Winds will lighten to around 5-10 knots overnight, before becoming gusty once again around 15z Tuesday. Gusts look to be similar, around 25 knots. Ceilings will lower but not reach MVFR this TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 58 77 60 72 / 0 60 90 90 Clarksville 58 74 54 65 / 10 80 90 80 Crossville 52 72 57 69 / 0 40 90 100 Columbia 56 75 61 72 / 0 50 80 90 Cookeville 54 73 59 69 / 0 40 90 90 Jamestown 54 74 56 69 / 0 50 90 100 Lawrenceburg 55 75 62 73 / 0 40 80 90 Murfreesboro 56 76 61 72 / 0 50 90 90 Waverly 59 73 55 67 / 10 70 100 90 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Holley