FXUS64 KOHX 041611 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1111 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1110 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 - Scattered afternoon showers mainly over the Cumberland Plateau through Thursday. - Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the whole area this weekend. Severe weather is not expected but heavy rain is possible. - Seasonal temperatures. Afternoon heat index values near 100 this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday night) Issued at 1110 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 No major pattern changes are in the forecast through Thursday as big east to west differences continue. The Plateau will experience medium to high chances for showers and a few storms each day while areas along and west of I-65 will have very low rain chances through Thursday. Temperatures will be near normal area-wide. The high rain chances in our eastern counties are the result of an upper level low pressure system located over north GA. Over the next couple of days, the low pressure will gradually open up as it lifts northward into the prevailing cyclonic flow over the Ohio Valley. This will keep an axis of deep moisture over our eastern counties. There will be enough instability for a few storms in the heat of the daytime hours, but conditions will not be favorable for severe weather. Much drier air in place over our western counties will keep rain chances less than 30 percent. Otherwise, clearing skies at night will bring favorable fog conditions, especially across the southeast half of our area. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1110 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 As we head into the weekend, the upper level low will get swept away and our wx will be influenced by a Bermuda high along with a series of weak disturbances. This pattern will bring slightly warmer and more humid conditions along with area-wide chances for scattered showers and storms. Dew points will climb into the 70s, pushing afternoon heat index values over 100, except for the Plateau. CAPE values will increase helping to fuel storms, but shear and low level forcing will be generally weak. This will keep the severe threat low, but heavy rain will be likely with any thunderstorms. We won't see any major changes in the weather pattern as we head into early next week. The upper level trough over the Great Lakes will weaken and that will allow a strong upper level ridge over the West to build east some. This will push highs into the low to mid 90s with afternoon heat index values above 100. Rain chances will come down some as the upper level ridge to our east flattens and pushes south but still could see a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 Fog and low stratus will mix out at CSV/SRB by 14z allowing for VFR conditions to return. BNA/MQY/CKV will remain VFR for the taf period. Fog will likely develop again at CSV/SRB after 05/06z. Winds will generally be around 5 kts or less for the forecast period with a northerly component. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 90 68 90 71 / 10 0 30 20 Clarksville 88 68 90 70 / 0 0 10 10 Crossville 84 65 83 66 / 40 20 60 20 Columbia 90 69 90 71 / 20 10 30 10 Cookeville 85 68 84 68 / 30 10 50 20 Jamestown 86 67 84 67 / 20 10 60 20 Lawrenceburg 87 68 87 70 / 20 10 30 10 Murfreesboro 90 70 90 71 / 20 10 30 10 Waverly 88 68 90 70 / 0 0 10 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Reagan