FXUS64 KOHX 030453 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1053 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1049 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 - Warming afternoon temperatures through Tuesday. - High chance for rain Tuesday into Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts will generally range from 0.25"-0.50". - After a quick cooldown Wednesday, a warm and dry trend will begin Thursday, lasting through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1018 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 High pressure anchored over eastern Tennessee is resulting in temperatures dropping a bit faster than forecast with most areas across Middle TN already in the upper 20s. Clouds will continue to build in through the overnight, hopefully keeping temperatures from dropping too much further. A shortwave trough will move over the area Tuesday, pushing a weak low pressure system through the area. Rain will move in from the west late Tuesday morning, becoming more widespread through the afternoon. Pockets of heavier rain will be possible mainly east of I-65, but with little to no instability, rain will generally be light to moderate. Expected rainfall amounts range from 0.10"-0.25" across the northwest to 0.25"-0.75" across the east/southeast. A few isolated spots across the Cumberland Plateau could see upwards of 1" of rain by the time the system exits between 10pm-12am. Tonight's run of the HREF continues to highlight a small area down around Van Buren/Grundy counties for the "best" chance of seeing 1" of rain, and those chances remain low, between 10-20%. Wrap-around moisture may result in a few snow showers across the TN/KY border tomorrow night, however no accumulation is expected with this. Winds will be on the breezy tomorrow as the low moves through with gusts up to 20 mph at times. Outside of that and the rain, no hazardous weather is expected. The cold front will knock temperatures back into the 30s for afternoon highs Wednesday with overnight lows in the teens. So be ready to drip those faucets again Wednesday night! && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1018 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Thursday onward will feature a *mostly* warming trend with continued chilly nights of lows in the 20s. A large ridge setting up over the western US will push higher heights over the southeast, keeping things dry and warmer with afternoon temperatures generally in the 50s through the weekend. Long range models are in good agreement with the center of the ridge pushing over the area by Monday, and if this happens, this would result in temperatures making a run at 60 degrees next week. Still a ways out, so we'll see, but maybe something to look forward to. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1049 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 VFR conditions should continue through the rest of the overnight hours. Showers and lowering cigs and vis will develop starting mid to late morning and continue through the evening. A cold front will move through the terminals shifting winds from the SSW to the NW/NNW. Showers will end behind the front from west to east starting at CKV around 00z and BNA/MQY between 01-03z. Some light showers may linger until 06z at CSV/SRB. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 30 49 31 38 / 0 90 60 10 Clarksville 28 45 27 35 / 0 70 30 0 Crossville 24 45 32 37 / 0 90 80 10 Columbia 28 49 31 38 / 0 100 60 0 Cookeville 26 46 31 35 / 0 90 80 10 Jamestown 22 45 29 35 / 0 90 70 10 Lawrenceburg 27 49 32 38 / 0 100 70 0 Murfreesboro 26 49 32 38 / 0 90 70 10 Waverly 28 46 28 35 / 0 80 30 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Reagan