FXUS64 KOHX 020448 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1048 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1032 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 - Cold temperatures through Monday morning with wind chill values in the 10s. - Warming afternoon temperatures Monday and Tuesday. High chance for rain Tuesday into early Wednesday. - Dry weather mid to late week with overnight lows in the 20s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1032 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 Very light radar returns noted across extreme northwest middle TN tonight, though large surface dew point depressions from 700mb down to the surface are resulting in snow evaporating. With weak moisture advection ongoing, profiles could saturate enough overnight for a few spots to see some flurries again. Accumulation is not expected as the forcing for these small areas of snow pushes off to the east early Monday morning. Upper level ridging will quickly build in Monday afternoon, finally ushering in some much-needed "warmth", that is, temperatures in the low to upper 40s. We'll see plenty of sunshine, too, and this combo should really help melt off lingering areas of ice. Temperatures will drop to near or just below freezing overnight, so still use caution out there for any enduring areas of ice on sheltered roads. By Tuesday morning, we'll see an increase in cloud cover and moisture as our next weather system rolls out of the Great Plains. We'll be on the warmer side of this system which will result in the majority of our precipitation falling as rain. Showers will pick up late Tuesday morning across the west,and become more widespread during the afternoon. As colder air filters in behind the departing low, a transition to snow will be likely with any lingering precipitation. There is a small chance for a very brief window of mixed wintry precip across northwest portions of middle TN, but the probability of that currently looks very low. A dusting in spots can't be ruled out, but much more than that looks unlikely at this time. Probabilities for greater than a dusting are very low around 10%, mainly along the TN/KY border. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1032 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 Following the cold front, temperatures will drop back into the mid to upper 30s for Wednesday's highs with overnight lows in the upper teens. We'll see a gradual warming trend through Friday as highs make a run for the mid 50s. A strong low pressure system developing off the Great Lakes will strengthen this weekend, pushing another bout of cold air our way, but temperatures don't look to totally nose-dive; highs on Saturday are slated to fall back into the 40s. The colder air and precipitation associated with this system look like they will remain off to our northeast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026 VFR wind forecast for Middle TN airports this TAF period. Look for SCT to BKN high clouds with winds becoming SW at 5-7 kts tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 22 45 30 49 / 10 0 0 90 Clarksville 21 43 29 45 / 20 0 0 90 Crossville 13 41 26 47 / 0 0 0 100 Columbia 22 47 29 50 / 10 0 0 100 Cookeville 16 42 27 47 / 0 0 0 100 Jamestown 12 39 24 46 / 0 0 0 100 Lawrenceburg 22 47 30 50 / 10 0 0 100 Murfreesboro 19 47 28 50 / 0 0 0 100 Waverly 20 44 29 47 / 10 0 0 100 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for TNZ005>011- 023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Sizemore