FXUS64 KMRX 251151

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

751 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 714 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025



- Rain chances increase through the day on Sunday and become

  likely overnight into Monday morning. Low to medium rain 

  chances then persist through much of next week.



- Medium probability for gusty winds in the mountains and 

  foothills Sunday night.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 150 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025



Another dry day upon us, with some middle and high level clouds 

building in as the day progresses. Lower atmosphere will remain dry 

again, so expecting one more day of relative humidity values 

dipping quite low in the afternoon. 



An upper low currently exiting the southern Rockies will steadily 

progress eastwards towards our region over the next two and a half 

days, steadily weakening as it does so. Its associated low level

jet will also steadily weaken on approach, and the earlier Euro

run has also weakened the jet over our mountains. There's still

the cold air dam in place on the east side of the mountains, so

locations such as Camp Creek may benefit from the density gradient

and still see a few gusts Sunday night into wind advisory 

criteria, but not any more confident on this despite being 

closer now.



The rain next week will be very beneficial as October has been

primarily drier than average thus far. Still looking at two

distinct periods of moderate rainfall, though lighter showers may

fill in between the two. The aforementioned upper low brings us

the first bout of rainfall Sunday evening into Monday, and a

larger trough Tuesday night and into Thursday will bring the 

second bout. There's larger uncertainty on the back half of next 

week regarding where the big synoptic features will be located, 

but despite the various scenarios expecting some amount of 

sogginess leading up to Halloween is a good bet. The NBM only has 

low rain chances on Halloween itself, with promising early signals

from the major deterministic suite that we may see dry weather by

then. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 714 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025



VFR conditions expected to persist during the continued dry

weather. A deck of mid-level and high level clouds will continue

to build through the day. Light winds.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             71  49  65  51 /   0  10  50  80 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  68  46  68  51 /   0   0  30  70 

Oak Ridge, TN                       67  45  66  49 /   0   0  30  70 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  42  66  46 /   0   0  10  50 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Wellington

AVIATION...Wellington