FXUS64 KMRX 240611

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

211 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



...New DISCUSSION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 135 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



- Another round of potential frost for colder locales in

  northeastern TN into southwestern VA Saturday morning, low

  temperatures will then be slightly milder through Wednesday 

  morning.



- Rain chances increase through the day on Sunday and become

  likely overnight into Monday morning. Low to medium rain chances

  then persist through much of next week.





&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 135 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



One more morning of frost in the near term likely tomorrow 

morning, then low temperatures will increase slightly thanks to a 

milder airmass moving in, clouds moving in, and eventually some 

rain with the approach of our eastward moving and weakening upper 

low. That's our first bout of rainfall and the part we're much 

more confident in, with guidance just holding remaining 

disagreements about how late into Sunday showers may begin.



There's a low probability of a mountain wave wind event for the 

overnight hours Sunday into Monday morning. LREF ensemble mean 

currently depicts the LLJ weakening on approach to our mountains, 

but some guidance (notably the Euro and its AI counterpart) depict

the jet being 35 to 45 knots as the shortwave swings through. 

Coupled with a cold air dam on the NC side of the mountains, and 

the resulting environment would be favorable for gusty winds on 

the TN side.

 

Meanwhile the polar jet over the North Pacific will move and 

extend into the northern US by Monday. Lingering moisture between 

the two main systems may contribute to lighter rain in an overall 

dreary day on Tuesday, with the area just south of the digging 

upper jet by then. Guidance still continues the trend of deepening

another longwave trough over the area by Wednesday, bringing a 

cooler airmass but not necessarily cold. The good news is so far 

the rain next week looks to be immensely beneficial, with not 

much in the way of CAPE nor a supportive setup around to fuel 

any excessive rain rates. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 106 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites. Winds will

be calm overnight and generally be light during the day. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             67  44  71  48 /   0   0   0  10 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  64  40  67  47 /   0   0   0   0 

Oak Ridge, TN                       63  41  67  46 /   0   0   0   0 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              60  35  65  43 /   0   0   0   0 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Wellington

AVIATION...DGS