FXUS64 KMRX 240510

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

110 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 106 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



- Dry conditions with chilly mornings and mild afternoons expected

  through Saturday. Frost to a light freeze is possible Friday

  morning in NE Tennessee and SW Virginia.



- Rain chances return over the latter part of the weekend and into

  next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 152 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025



A deep upper trough remains in place to our north while amplified 

H85 flow near 25kts from the northwest promotes a near seasonable 

and dry air mass. Main impacts the remainder of this afternoon will 

be the developing breeze as mixing transports aforementioned winds 

to the surface. Additionally, mostly clear skies and light winds 

overnight will promote some areas of frost or hard freeze across 

portions of northeast Tennessee into southwest Virginia. 



Upper trough will lift north and east as we head into the weekend. 

This will allow for a shortwave ridge and surface high pressure to 

influence the region Friday and Saturday. Winds will become light 

with continued chilly mornings and mild afternoons. Portions of 

extreme northeast Tennessee into southwest Virginia could see 

additional frost impacts Friday night/Saturday morning. 



Pattern begins to shift Sunday as a closed low progresses into the 

Mississippi River Valley, increasing moisture return across the 

southern Appalachians. By Sunday night precipitation chances will 

increase area wide. PWAT values will approach 90th percentile 

values, however, little to no instability and weakening dynamics

will limit the potential for any hazards. For now, thunder 

wording has been largely kept out of the forecast. NBM Probability

of precip greater than 0.50" from Sunday night through Monday 

night is 40-60%. Increasing the QPF amount to 1.00" shifts the 

probability to 20-40%. For each scenario the high probabilities 

favor the Cumberland Plateau and southern valley into southwest 

NC. 



Uncertainty increases by the middle parts of next week. The GFS 

wants to develop a secondary system over the Tennessee Valley that 

would promote additional moderate to heavy rainfall. The Euro lacks 

this cyclogenesis and just lingers light rain with wrap around 

moisture from the previous system. In either scenario the 

temperatures will trend towards seasonally cool...just not much 

confidence in regards to precip chances. For now, will continue to 

promote the NBMs 30-50% PoPs. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 106 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites. Winds will

be calm overnight and generally be light during the day. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             68  45  71  49 /   0   0   0  10 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  64  41  69  47 /   0   0   0  10 

Oak Ridge, TN                       64  41  67  45 /   0   0   0  10 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              59  35  65  41 /   0   0   0   0 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...99

AVIATION...DGS