FXUS64 KMRX 201835

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

235 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



...New DISCUSSION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 234 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



- Most of the area will remain dry for the rest of today and 

tonight, outside of low-end rain chances in southwest Virginia late.



- Scattered showers and storms are possible late Saturday afternoon 

and evening. The main threat with these storms will be hail. 



- Warm and breezy conditions are expected Sunday with rain returning 

Sunday night into Monday morning. Then, dry and seasonally cooler 

conditions are expected until a warming trend late in the week. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Currently, a strong upper high is centered over the desert southwest 

with shortwave troughing to our northeast. A frontal boundary is 

also near the Great Lakes. This has put the region in a 

northwesterly flow pattern aloft with southwesterly flow in the 

lower levels. Isolated showers and storms will track in southwest 

Virginia late tonight into Saturday morning, largely keeping the 

region dry. On Saturday, a very weak shortwave will move overhead 

with the northern front moving southward. This will lead to 

increasing lift and moisture, sufficient for convection late 

afternoon into the evening. Winds aloft will be only around 20 to 25 

kts with largely elevated instability of 500 to 1,000 J/kg and mid-

level lapse rates over 6 C/km. This will lead to potential for hail 

within any storms, especially with WBZ heights below 10,000 feet. 

CAMs differ significantly on how much convection develops, if any. 

By Sunday, the flow aloft will become more zonal as troughing lifts 

to the northeast, followed by another deepening trough to the 

northwest. A surface low will then track towards the northeast, 

increasing low-level winds and pulling the front further south. This 

will lead to very warm and breezy conditions on Sunday but with rain 

chances not arriving until late in the night or early Monday 

morning. While winds will be stronger, instability is indicated to 

be nearly 0, keeping chances for actual convection limited. Still, 

the stronger MSLP gradient and synoptic flow could lead to gusty 

winds. 



During the day on Monday, the front will have moved south of the 

region with high pressure expanding from the north. This will 

promote drier and seasonally cooler conditions, which remain 

generally the same into Tuesday. By Wednesday, broad ridging will 

expand from the southwest with high pressure shifting eastward, 

leading to a return of southerly flow and increasing moisture and 

WAA. Low-end rain chances are indicated for Wednesday as the remnant 

front is pulled back northward, but this is limited overall. Late in 

the week, a stronger system is expected to develop and track far to 

our north. Overall, the impacts for our area look limited, but the 

question will be when and if its associated front arrives. This 

could bring showers and storms but likely not until later Thursday 

or Friday. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Windy conditions continue through today with mid to high level 

clouds remaining in place coming out of the north. Winds slack off

after sunset, and while they'll pick back up tomorrow, they are 

not expected to be as breezy.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             55  83  58  86 /   0  30  20   0 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  56  79  58  84 /  10  30  20   0 

Oak Ridge, TN                       54  80  56  84 /  10  30  20   0 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              53  73  53  80 /  20  20  10   0 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BW

AVIATION...99