FXUS64 KMRX 201832 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 232 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 232 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 - Showers and storms are likely Monday, with the potential for strong/severe storms Monday afternoon/evening. - Rain chances continue daily through next week, with temperatures near or slightly below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Surface high pressure remains over the area today and tonight, while a shortwave trough to our south is bringing some mid/high clouds to our southern sections. On Sunday, with the high to our east, a southerly flow develops that will increase low level moisture and push temperatures a few degrees above normal. Chances of rain continue to trend downward on Sunday, downto just slight chances for our southern sections, which makes sense as convection across MS/AL/GA is likely to limit deep moisture transport from the Gulf. Forecast soundings continue to look fairly capped with dry air aloft tomorrow. A low pressure system will track W to E across the lower Great Lakes area Sunday night through Monday. Synoptic forcing ahead of the upper trough and jet streak will enhance lift and aid convection, but the details of how this will evolve through the day remain unclear. CAMS are not in good agreement on how remnant morning convection across KY/West & Middle TN will play out, and how much that MCS will weaken before it reaches our area. Can the afternoon air mass destabilize for additional storms to develop and intensify? Will morning activity leave a boundary in the area to focus afternoon storm development? Shear appers to be supportive for organized storms, with the low to midlevel winds in the 30-40 kt range. MLCAPE for much of the area is forecast to be above 1000 J/Kg by Monday afternoon. PW values will be returning to near 2 inches, so a flash flooding threat may be heightened. WPC has placed the entire area in a SLGT chance of flash flooding, while SPC has the entire area in a marginal severe risk. So the general threat of severe storms with damaging winds and flooding continues, but additional details remain murky at this point. For Tuesday onward, periods of isolated to scattered showers and storms will persist through next week as the pattern will be a broad trough across the eastern Conus with embedded disturbances at times. Temperatures, as a result, will hold steady near or just below normal. Dew points could possibly remain sub 70s Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 123 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 VFR conditions will continue through the rest of this TAF period, with light winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 89 72 87 / 0 20 50 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 90 72 86 / 0 10 40 100 Oak Ridge, TN 63 89 71 85 / 0 10 60 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 88 66 86 / 0 0 40 100 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...DGS