FXUS64 KMRX 201122

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

722 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 657 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



- Above normal temperatures this weekend. Highs Sunday will be 15

  to 20 degrees above normal.



- Scattered to isolated showers/storms Saturday with low-end

  potential of hail.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 201 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Troughing off the Atlantic coast and a large ridge over the western 

Conus will maintain the NW flow pattern across the TN Valley

region today. The warming trend will continue, with highs in the 

70s central and south, to mid/upper 60s north. Winds could get 

breezy and gusty this afternoon as the SW wind gets channeled up 

the Valley, with winds at the top of the boundary layer between 

25-30 kt. 



A surface front and a weak upper trough drop SW across the OH Valley 

on Friday night. This could bring some showers and isolated 

thunderstorms to our northern sections overnight. The front settles 

E-W along the TN/VA/KY border area on Saturday, and could be the 

focus for shower/thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Model 

soundings show some good midlevel lapse rates around 8-8.5 C/km and 

MLCAPE around 1200 J/kg at CHA, but there is a capping inversion 

that will need to be overcome to realize this instability. Forcing 

appears weak so confidence on a severe threat is low. Hail would be 

the main threat with gusty winds possible as well if storms can 

develop.  



A low pressure system over the Plains will keep a SW surface flow 

across our area on Sunday that will provide warm temperatures. Highs 

will reach well into the 80s for much of the TN Valley. A cold front 

will cross the area on Monday, but limited moisture will mean little 

in the way of precipitation. Cooler temperatures will follow for 

Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 657 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Following calm conditions this morning, SW winds and gusts will

increase later today. Cloud cover expected to build in from the

north. Outside chance of precipitation towards the latter part of

the TAF period at TRI with whatever is left of a frontal system

sweeping down from the north. LLWS introduced at TRI late tonight

with an increasing westerly jet.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             78  54  84  56 /   0   0  30  10 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  73  56  79  57 /  10  10  30  10 

Oak Ridge, TN                       73  54  79  55 /   0  10  30  10 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  52  72  52 /  10  30  20  10 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...DGS

AVIATION...KS