FXUS64 KMRX 191841

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

241 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026



...New DISCUSSION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 224 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026



- Spring-like temperatures this weekend. Highs Sunday will be 15

  to 20 degrees above normal.



- Widely scattered to scattered storms Saturday afternoon. Low-end

  potential of small hail with these thunderstorms. Confidence is

  too low to include within the HWO.



- Cooler airmass for early next week but still near to slightly

  above normal.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 224 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Strong upper ridge across the Great Basin and troughing in the

east with northwest flow aloft will be the predominent weather

pattern throughout the forecast.



For Tonight through Friday night, dry northwest flow aloft with

surface ridging slowly eroding and moving east. Warming trend will

continue with low afternoon relative humidity in the 30s most

locations Friday.



For Saturday, deterministic and ensemble models show a wave

dropping southeast into the central and southern Appalachians.

Increase in southwest boundary layer flow will pull moisture back

into the region. Ensemble CAPE/Shear combo show enough instability

for scattered afternoon convection. Depending on the low-level

moisture return and mid-level lapse rates (around 6.5-6.7 degrees)

some of the storms could produce small hail. Low confidence on

this threat so did not include within the HWO.



For Sunday, this wave has moved east of the region with building

heights producing an unseasonably warm day. Highs will be 15 to 20

degrees above normal. Here are the records for Sunday:



Date  Chattanooga  Knoxville  Tri-Cities  Oak Ridge 

3-22  89(1907)     87(1907)   81(1938)    83(2011)  



A stronger upper short-wave will move across Great Lakes into the

northeast/Mid-atlantic states for Sunday night and early Monday.

This wave will pull a frontal boundary southeast into the region.

A chance of showers will accompany the front especially across

southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Ensemble QPF is pretty

light and less than one-tenth inch.



Dry northwest flow for Monday night and Tuesday with more seasonal

temperatures. Another fast moving wave in the northwest flow aloft

is possible by mid-week next week.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 118 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026



VFR conditions at all TAF sites throughout the forecast period.

Surface ridging into the Tennessee valley will keep winds

generally less than 10 knots.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             43  77  53  83 /   0   0  10  10 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  41  72  54  79 /   0   0  10  20 

Oak Ridge, TN                       40  72  52  79 /   0   0  10  20 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              34  67  51  72 /   0  10  20  20 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...DH

AVIATION...DH