FXUS64 KMRX 061929

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

329 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Monday)

Issued at 325 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025



Key Messages:



1. Light to occasional moderate rain chances will continue 

through the period with slightly cooler temperatures Monday.



Discussion:



A convergence boundary remains in place across portions of the 

southeast CONUS this afternoon, with the main precip shield 

continuing to slowly crawl eastward. The environment remains very 

worked over from all the recent activity and this is depicted within 

SPC mesoanalysis as we would be lucky to even see a few small 

pockets of ~250J/kg instability into the evening. 



While no significant impacts are expected, upper level divergence 

associated with the right entrance region of a ~130kt jet and the 

combination of vort lobes translating through upper troughing will 

promote precipitation chances continuing tonight and into Monday,

though rain chances will generally be best in counties directly 

along the Appalachian mountains tomorrow. Expect overcast 

conditions with a slight cooling trend as a shift to northerly 

winds aids in the start of cold air advection Monday.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Monday night through next Sunday)

Issued at 325 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025



Key Messages: 



1. Below normal temperatures will lead to some frost/freeze 

conditions Monday night with widespread freeze conditions Tuesday 

night. 



2. Mild temperatures are expected mid-week with light rain chances 

returning Thursday and Friday. Cooler temperatures are expected 

behind a cold frontal once again Friday into Saturday.



Discussion:



By Monday night the vort max and upper-level jet will eject eastward 

and the bulk of lingering precipitation will come to an end as a 

result. H85 flow around 20-25kts will veer northwesterly and 

continue to usher in colder air and perhaps even influence a few 

snowflakes in the highest peaks of the TN mountains and southwest 

VA. Moisture looks very limited thus no impacts or significant 

accumulation is expected. The main focus will be temperatures 

between 5 to 10 degrees below normal that will result in freeze 

conditions for higher elevations of the mountains into southwest 

Virginia and along the northern Plateau. Much of the northern and 

central valley will fall into the mid 30s in which frost will be 

possible, however, a light wind may inhibit the areal coverage. 

Strong cold air advection will continue through Tuesday as high 

pressure centers atop the region Tuesday night. Favorable 

radiational cooling conditions will lead to widespread freeze 

conditions through the central and even portions of the southern 

valley.



Temperatures will moderate with a slight warming trend among dry and 

sunny conditions Wednesday afternoon. A shortwave will gradually 

deepen troughing Wednesday night into Thursday as a surface low 

pressure system develops in the Great Lakes region. The associated 

cold front will bring our next chance of showers and perhaps a few 

rumbles of thunder by Thursday into Friday but little to no impacts 

are expected with this system. GFS soundings do depict freezing 

levels falling to around 5kft Friday morning as the trough settles 

in so perhaps some graupel is possible during the cool morning 

hours. Otherwise, Saturday and Sunday morning will likely see 

temperatures falling below 40 degrees area wide once again.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025



The stratiform rain shield continues to slowly shift eastward with

some additional light showers developing along or just west of the

Plateau. Expect occasional rain or vicinity rain to continue

through much of the evening though thunder chances are low enough

they have been omitted from the forecast. MVFR to IFR cigs are

expected to develop between 0Z and 4Z with hi-resolution guidance

suggesting very high probabilities(70+ %) those low cigs hold 

into at least Monday afternoon. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             53  59  40  58 /  60  30   0   0 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  51  58  35  53 /  80  50  10   0 

Oak Ridge, TN                       50  57  33  54 /  70  30   0   0 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              50  59  32  50 /  90  50  10   0 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...KRS

LONG TERM....KRS

AVIATION...KRS