FXUS64 KMRX 021124 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 624 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 621 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 - Very cold temperatures this morning. Cold Weather Advisory in effect for northeast TN and southwest VA. - Moderating temperatures over the next few days. - Precipitation chances returning by late Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1241 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 Conditions have turned calm this morning, resulting in much colder temperatures than previously forecast. This is especially true for parts of the forecast area with snowpack. A near 1028 mb surface high sits overhead. We're situated on the backside of troughing with northwesterly flow. SPC meso analysis shows a tongue of -12 to -7C at 850 mb reaching down into our area from WV. Ambient temperatures at some locations, even before midnight, were near zero to single digits below zero. Much colder guidance was used for the lows this morning to best capture what we could achieve with calm, subsidence, and fresh snowpack. It is possible that there could be isolated readings near 10 below zero in sheltered valleys. High clouds moving in from central TN to KY and north, may help prevent temperatures from getting any colder this morning, but that depends on the timing of the cloud cover arrival. Those further to the east (Tri-Cities, SW VA, etc.), may not receive the cloud cover in time. The Cold Weather Advisory recently issued is mainly for temperatures alone, since calm conditions cannot create wind chills. Once we turn the corner on the cold temperatures this morning, it should pan out to be a fairly nice day with many seeing temperatures above freezing; except mountainous terrain and parts of NE TN and SW VA. This will allow much greater melting than from sublimation alone in temperatures below freezing. Tuesday, almost the entire forecast area will be above freezing for highs. A front arrives later Tuesday into Wednesday with precipitation returning, except this time will primarily be rain. Locations that get to near or below freezing Wednesday morning, may have a mixture of rain and snow. The highest elevations may see minor light accumulation. Temperatures then cool into Thursday and looks like another dry period around Thursday into Friday. Warmer temperatures again Friday, but not before another possible cold front forecast to impact the region the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 VFR conditions and light winds less than 10kts are expected for the TAF period. Though, a period of BKN/OVC low level clouds will slowly work west to east as a vort max swings through the region this morning and into the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 28 54 38 / 0 0 70 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 25 49 35 / 0 0 60 70 Oak Ridge, TN 40 24 47 35 / 0 0 70 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 19 44 34 / 0 0 50 80 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Grainger-Hamblen- Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-North Sevier- Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Sullivan-Unicoi-Washington TN. VA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Lee- Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise. && $$ DISCUSSION...KS AVIATION...KRS