FXUS64 KMOB 201753 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 - Slight Risk of Flash Flooding Saturday. - A HIGH RISK of rip currents continues Saturday for the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 20.00Z upper air maps show a generally flat flow at high levels as upper level impulses ride eastward atop the area in the westerlies. Low to mid-level ridge noses westward across the FL Peninsula into the Gulf. Very little has changed considering the overall environment with plentiful deep layer moisture (PWAT's 2.0 to 2.2") in place. In combination with forced ascent from mesoscale outflow boundaries, short range ensembles indicate highest ranges of surface based instability at 2000 to 3000 J/KG in the presence of sfc-500mb shear 25kts or less suggest a summer- time convective regime. That being an increase in areal coverage through the course of the day Saturday. Strongest storms Saturday likely to contain high rain rates, posing a continuation in flash flood potential if storms move little. Slight Risk for excessive rain outlooked for entire area Saturday. A typical summer-time diurnal mode in showers and storms reflect decreasing coverages Saturday night. ...SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK... Challenging pattern over the medium range. A nearly zonal flow aloft in place on Sunday with elongated pressure ridge positioned over Gulf. Will maintain a persistence type approach with a modest chance of showers and storms developing through the day Sunday as the moisture axis holds. There are indications of some drying/lowering of PWAT values Monday and Tuesday which would translate to lower PoPs than what we have seen of late. But by the latter half the week, will have to watch potential of convective systems rolling southeast. These systems would be embedded in a potentially active northwest flow at base of upper trof, east of the MS Valley. Heat indices trend 102 to 107 Monday and Tuesday and there are some areas along the coastal zones that break into heat advisory criteria at 108+. Plenty of time to watch for heat related products on later forecasts. A HIGH risk of dangerous to potentially deadly rip currents continues for all Florida and Alabama beaches through Saturday afternoon. Multiple rivers remain in flood. Most in minor flood. A few at moderate to major levels. /10 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 MVFR to VFR conditions early this afternoon will prevail through most of the period. The exception will be during scattered showers and thunderstorms where brief periods of IFR conditions can be expected. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 High pressure noses westward across the Florida Peninsula and into the central Gulf through the middle of next week. Light to occasionally moderate southwesterly winds will prevail through Monday then turn more westerly mid week. Seas generally 2 to 3 feet. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 89 74 87 77 / 80 30 50 0 Pensacola 89 77 87 80 / 80 20 30 10 Destin 88 77 87 80 / 70 30 40 10 Evergreen 86 71 86 74 / 80 20 60 10 Waynesboro 86 72 86 75 / 80 30 60 0 Camden 82 70 84 73 / 90 20 70 10 Crestview 88 72 87 75 / 70 20 50 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$