FXUS64 KMOB 201711

AFDMOB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Mobile AL

1211 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



 - Temperatures will continue to warm by the end of this week and

   will remain above average through the weekend and into early 

   next week.



 - Moderate to extreme drought along with little to no rain in 

   the forecast through next week will exasperate wildfire 

   activity.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Northerly to northwesterly flow aloft will continue through much 

of the period as our local area remains on the eastern periphery 

of a strong upper ridge over the southwest US. At the surface, 

high pressure has settled over the northern Gulf and will remain 

in place through the weekend. Although several embedded shortwaves

look to pass overhead, the high in place, along with low moisture

values, should help to keep rain out of the forecast through the 

weekend. By the Monday/Tuesday timeframe, it remains possible that

a weak frontal boundary may approach and push into the local 

area. Some guidance is now suggesting that the front may not be 

able to clear the area and instead linger overhead into Wednesday.

Additionally, probabilistic guidance continues to suggest a 

modest increase in moisture values Tuesday and Wednesday (30-40% 

chance of PWATs exceeding 1.2 inches). Although our forecast 

maintains a mainly dry forecast next week, I could potentially see

a scenario where rain chances increase sometime during the 

Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe due to this increase in moisture, 

shortwaves moving overhead, and the proximity of the front at the 

surface. That being said, with little relief expected from the

ongoing drought, an elevated fire risk will continue through the

period. Otherwise, very warm conditions are expected throughout 

the period. Highs will likely reach the low to mid 80s for most 

areas (upper 70s along the coast), with upper 80s possible for a 

few interior locations throughout the period. Lows will generally 

be in the 50s to low 60s. A Low Risk of rip currents continues 

through the weekend and into early next week. /96



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



VFR conditions, along with a light southerly to southwesterly

flow, will prevail over the next 24 hours. /96



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 209 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Light and variable flow continues today. A light to moderate 

westerly to southwesterly flow becomes prevalent for this weekend 

and into early next week. MM/25



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Mobile      77  53  81  58 /   0   0   0   0 

Pensacola   73  57  76  61 /   0   0   0   0 

Destin      71  58  73  61 /   0   0   0   0 

Evergreen   80  50  84  54 /   0   0   0   0 

Waynesboro  80  53  82  57 /   0   0   0   0 

Camden      78  53  82  57 /   0   0   0   0 

Crestview   78  49  82  55 /   0   0   0   0 



&&



.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...None.

FL...None.

MS...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$