FXUS64 KMOB 031114 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 514 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 512 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 - Strong winds will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, and possibly late in the week as well. - A Moderate Rip Current Risk will occur mainly Tuesday night through Wednesday as southwesterly winds increase over the Gulf, and possibly late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1046 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 A series of vigorous systems lead to the formation of a large positively tilted upper trof over the central and eastern CONUS by Tuesday night which progresses into the eastern half of the CONUS by Wednesday night. An associated surface low is expected to bring a cold front through the forecast area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As the large upper trof moves off into the western Atlantic going into Saturday, a surface ridge builds into the forecast area, then a weak reinforcing cold front moves through the area Friday night. Have continued with likely to categorical pops shifting across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with dry conditions developing in the afternoon. Instability remains limited with the frontal passage, with just some embedded storms expected over the marine area and near the coast. Dry conditions are expected over the area from Wednesday night all the way through Tuesday, despite the weak front moving through Friday night, as deep layer moisture looks too limited to consider pops for an extended period. Highs on Tuesday will be 65-70, a change from the cool/cold temperatures of the past week or so. Highs Wednesday into Thursday trend to around 50, then trend warmer to the upper 60s/lower 70s by Sunday with similar values continuing into Tuesday. Lows Tuesday night range from the 40s to mid 50s then lows Wednesday night and Thursday night will be mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Overnight lows moderate Friday night into Monday night, by which time lows range from the mid 40s to around 50. A low risk of rip currents Tuesday will be followed by a moderate risk Tuesday night and Wednesday. A low risk of rip currents is expected Wednesday night for Alabama beaches, though a moderate risk continues for the western Florida panhandle beaches. A low risk of rip currents follows for Thursday, then for Friday a low risk of rip currents for Alabama beaches continues, although the western Florida panhandle beaches will have a moderate risk. /29 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 VFR flight category prevails across the region into tonight. Scattered to numerous rain showers move into the area late this afternoon into tonight, potentially bringing reduced ceilings and visibility underneath the heavier showers. Winds will be gusty out of the south-southwest this morning and afternoon sustained 10 to 15 knots gusting to 20 knots. Winds relax some this evening to around 5 to 10 knots. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1046 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 A light to moderate southwesterly flow begins to increase Tuesday night then switches to a moderate to strong northwesterly flow on Wednesday as a cold front moves through. Strong offshore winds Wednesday night diminish Thursday into Thursday night. A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary by Wednesday afternoon well offshore, then for the entire area Wednesday night before tapering off into Thursday evening. A moderate to strong westerly flow develops on Friday, switches to the northwest Friday night then diminishes on Saturday. Another Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for the open Gulf waters Friday afternoon into the evening hours. /29 && .PRELIMINARYPOINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 67 52 61 32 / 0 80 50 0 Pensacola 66 56 62 34 / 0 80 80 0 Destin 65 56 64 34 / 0 70 90 10 Evergreen 68 47 57 28 / 0 90 60 0 Waynesboro 67 44 54 28 / 30 90 20 0 Camden 66 46 54 27 / 20 90 40 0 Crestview 67 49 62 30 / 0 80 90 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$