FXUS64 KMEG 251117

AFDMEG



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Memphis TN

617 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 617 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



- Scattered shower and occasional thunderstorm chances will begin

  to increase late Saturday afternoon and persist through the 

  evening. More widespread rainfall will push across the Mid-South

  Sunday.

 

- Temperatures will edge below normal beginning Sunday with highs

  largely in the 60s and lower 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.



- Isolated to scattered showers will continue through Wednesday. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(Tonight through next Friday)

Issued at 1110 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



A calm and cool night is on display at this hour with current 

temperatures in the 50s with relatively light winds at the 

surface and a stratus cloud deck pushing west to east. High 

pressure remains fixed over the Mid-South. Current surface 

analysis displaying occluded front extending across the Texas 

panhandle. This front will slowly edge across the ArkLaTex region 

by late Saturday morning, slowly increasing the moisture profile 

and increasing the dewpoints here in our area. Dry conditions are 

expected to persist across the Mid-South through early afternoon 

as ridging stays pretty well fixed over our area. Shower and 

occasional thunderstorm chances will slowly increase late Saturday

afternoon and persist into the evening as the aforementioned 

front edges closer to our area. WAA ahead of this system, despite 

persistent cloud cover will increase our afternoon high 

temperatures Saturday into the mid to upper 70s. 



Sunday will be more of a washout as a deep trough and associated 

closed upper-level low slowly push into the Middle Mississippi 

Valley from the southern Rockies. Dewpoints will increase into the 

low to mid 60s as forecast PWATS increase to around 1.6", nearing 

the 85th percentile for this time of year. Strong upper-level 

divergence will also be present across the Middle-Mississippi 

Valley giving ample lift to continuous shower and occasional 

thunderstorms Sunday. Persistent rainfall will result in highs 

Sunday in the low to mid 60s. This aforementioned upper-low will 

begin to push east early Monday, decreasing rain chances (25-40%), 

mainly east of the Mississippi river, through late morning. 



The weather pattern will remain progressive behind this deep trough. 

Late Monday, another surface low quickly follows, setting up a 

little further north than the first. Shower chances will once again 

increase (30-45%) Monday evening and into Tuesday. An attendant 

cold front will move push across the Mid-South Tuesday morning. 

Ahead of this front, showers will be present with little to no 

lightning as CAA pushes in with this system creating a relatively 

stable atmosphere. Tuesday evening, the weather pattern becomes 

very messy as ensembles do indicate a positively tilted trough 

ejecting in to the Upper Mississippi Valley from the western Great

lakes region. The intensity of this system is still up in the 

air, but bottom line: showers and thunderstorms will be present 

again on Wednesday. The pressure gradient does look pretty tight 

with this trough resulting in likely brisk surface winds 

Wednesday. Dry conditions look to prevail in the latter part of 

next week behind this system. Thursday morning will likely be the 

coldest of this season, even colder on Friday. Frost headlines may

be warranted late next week.



AEH



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



An upper level low will bring a prolonged period of rain showers

to the airspace. The pressure gradient will tighten ahead of the

low, and bring gusty winds prior to rain onset. Uncertainty still

lies on the onset of precipitation, so PROB30s remain. Showers

could begin as early as late this afternoon, but best chances are

near and after 00z.



VFR conditions with easterly flow will prevail through the 

period. Probabilities for MVFR ceilings begin to rise after 12z 

and may need introduced in the next cycle. 



DNM



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 1110 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Minimum relative humidity values will be less than 35% Saturday, 

though 20 ft winds will be light mitigating much fire weather 

danger. Wetting rain returns late Saturday as a pattern shift 

occurs.



&&



.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...None.

MO...None.

MS...None.

TN...None.

&&



$$



PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH

AVIATION...DNM