FXUS64 KMEG 240432 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1132 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1130 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 - Dry and calm conditions will continue through Friday. - A wet and unsettled pattern with cooler conditions will begin on Saturday and continue into next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 A calm and cool night is present at this hour with current temperatures in the 40s and 50s and light northeast winds at the surface under mostly clear skies as the latest surface analysis drapes a cold front just south of our area. High pressure and northwest flow aloft has quickly built in behind this front bringing another calm and mild day for Friday with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Though high pressure will largely dominate Friday's weather pattern, clouds will gradually build in, west to east, as we move into the afternoon as the moisture plume begins to increase ahead of a deep upper trough. The aforementioned trough will bring a weather pattern shift across the Mid-South Saturday. This system is expected to materialize as a closed upper-level low ejecting in from the southern Rockies. Ahead of this trough, a surface low and attendant occluded front will emerge from the ArkLaTex region bringing a large swath of showers across the Mid-South beginning Saturday evening. Sunday looks like more of a washout as the upper-low moves into the Middle-Mississippi Valley and ample upper-level divergence will be present. Sunday will also see gusty winds and decreased temperatures with highs in the low to mid 60s. Though this will be our first mentionable rainfall in about a week, severe weather is not expected as instability will be very lack luster with LREF indicating around 200 J/kg of SBCAPE, around 35 kts of 0-6km wind shear, and forecast PWATS around 1.7", nearing the 75th percentile for this time of year. The weather pattern will remain very messy and progressive come Monday as another surface low quickly follows, setting up a little further north than the first. Shower and thunderstorm chances with this second system are more scattered in nature (20-40%) given the placement of this surface low. An attendant cold front will push across the Mid-South Tuesday morning. Ahead of this front, showers will be present with little to no lightning as CAA pushes in with this system, creating a more stable atmosphere. Post frontal showers for Wednesday will be nothing to write home about as chances are around 15%. Though we are a little ways out to talk about the exact scenario that will play out Wednesday, ensembles do indicate a positively tilted trough ejecting in to the Ohio River Valley from the western Great lakes region. Though this will bring little to no moisture with it, the pressure gradient does look pretty tight on the southern fringe of this trough leading to likely brisk winds for Wednesday. Dry conditions do look to prevail in the latter part of next week though behind the main cold front. Thursday morning will likely be the coldest of this season, even colder on Friday. Frost headlines may be warranted late next week. AEH && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace. Northeast winds will remain around 5-10 kts over the next 30 hours or so. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Minimum relative humidity values will be less than 35 % Friday and Saturday, though 20 ft winds will be light mitigating much fire weather danger. Wetting rain returns Saturday as a pattern shift occurs. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...AEH