FXUS64 KMEG 211151 AAA

AFDMEG



Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Memphis TN

651 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 650 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



- Well above normal temperatures will persist today, with highs in

  the mid 90s to around 100 degrees.



- A cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers and

  thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Widespread

  rainfall is not expected. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm

  gusts will be possible over northeast Mississippi this

  afternoon.



- Temperatures will edge closer to normal by midweek, and then

  trend gradually warmer by the weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(Tonight through next Sunday)

Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026



Near record breaking temperatures remain the story across the Mid-

South as a 590dam ridge remains parked over the Lower Mississippi

Valley. Taking a look at 00Z surface analysis, a stationary

boundary is extending across the Ohio River Valley through the

Southern Plains, just north of Springfield, MO. This front will

bring our first shot at isolated to scattered precipitation

chances in about 10 days Monday afternoon into evening. Forecast

PWATs also begin to increase to around 1.75", nearing the 75th

percentile for this time of the year, supporting increased

moisture. However, latest HREF probabilities only have around a

20% chance of exceeding a quarter of an inch of rainfall Monday.

The environment in the afternoon into early evening hours will be

supportive of wet microbursts with ample instability in place,

but little to no shear. A strong thunderstorm or two with strong

wind gusts can't be ruled out, but nothing to write home about.

As far as temperatures go Monday, we're looking at yet another

near record-breakingly hot September day with highs in the mid 

90s to lower 100s.



On the bright side, relief from 48 days of 90 degree or higher

temperatures is close by as a cooler airmass filters in behind

the aforementioned front. We're looking at highs in the 80s to

lower 90s by Tuesday as the zonal flow also begins to push in

aloft. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms may be witnessed

near the Tennessee River and over northeast Mississippi through

Tuesday afternoon, although nothing appreciable is expected once

again. Wednesday looks even more pleasant with lows in the 60s

and highs in the 80s across much of the Mid-South as a cutoff low

dips across the northern Ohio River Valley and upper-level

northwest flow begins to move in over the Middle Mississippi

Valley. Ensemble members are in decent agreement with upper-level

northwest flow remaining over the region through at least the

weekend, keeping temperatures near normal. As far as

precipitation goes past Tuesday, we're looking at a relatively

dry period through at least the weekend as dry air filters in and

surface high pressure moves in behind the aforementioned front.



AEH



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 650 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



Isolated SHRA/TSRA near JBR at daybreak will lift northeast in

advance of an upper trough lifting through AR this morning. TSRA

chances will remain non-zero at all terminals today, as isolated

elevated convection develops after 18Z. TS chances remain just at

PROB30 level for TUP, given the proximity of a weak surface font

near peak daytime heating. Elected to forgo PROB30 for MEM, as

focus for SHRA/TSRA has a better chance of developing SE of the

terminal early this afternoon, with a ESE movement of SHRA/TSRA

thereafter.



Light northerly winds and VFR will prevail for the late evening 

inbound push at MEM. There is a decent signal in the guidance for 

a low MVFR or perhaps high IFR CIG toward 12z at all Mid-South TAF

sites.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026



Another anomalously warm day is on tap for Monday with highs in

the mid 90s to lower 100s. A weak cold front will bring isolated

chances for showers and storms Monday. While moisture and minimum

relative humidity values will increase, wetting rain is not

expected. 20ft winds will remain below 10 mph through the period.

A low chance for fog development will exist mainly along the

Tennessee River Tuesday morning, otherwise fog is not expected

amidst relatively dry soils. Cooler conditions will filter in

behind the cold front Monday.



&&





.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...None.

MO...None.

MS...None.

TN...None.

&&



$$



PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH

AVIATION...PWB