FXUS64 KMEG 191721

AFDMEG



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Memphis TN

1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



- A warming trend will bring near-record high temperatures in the

  mid 80s this weekend.



- Dry weather will continue through at least Sunday evening.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(This evening through next Wednesday)

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Quiet weather currently resides over the region. This is due to

an upper ridge that has now fully taken hold of much of the CONUS

today as an expansive 590+ dm 500 mb ridge, currently centered

over the southwestern CONUS. Therefore, northwesterly upper flow

will prevail over the region through Friday, helping to retain

the surface high pressure behind last weekend's cold front.

Surface high pressure will still gradually shift eastward and

allow for southwesterlies to start advection warmer air into the

region today.



Warm air advection will persist into this weekend. As the upper

ridge to our west flattens with time, a portion of the ridge will

still manage to make its way to the Mid-South Saturday and

Sunday. These two processes will then lead to a drastic increase

in temperatures both Saturday and Sunday. As of this morning

there is a 30% - 40% chance of highs reaching above 85 F Saturday

and a 70% - 80% on Sunday. High temperature records across the

region during this timeframe hover between 83 - 88, making this

upcoming round of heat potentially record-breaking. So, expect

near-record breaking temperatures through this weekend with highs

in the mid to upper 80s.



A surface low is expected to develop beneath a jet streak as it

transits the northern CONUS, which will bring a cold front south

into the region Sunday evening. Cooler temperatures will then

bring our heat wave to an end Monday with highs in the upper 60s

and low 70s. Moisture advection will be meager up to this point

in the forecast with PWATs at or below 1", which in combination

with weak upper dynamics above the front, will yield no

appreciable precipitation Sunday and Monday. Cooler temperatures

will gradually warm through the rest of the forecast as the front

slowly retreats back north with mild, dry weather expected.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure dominates the

airspace. South/southwest winds will go light overnight before

picking up to generally 10 kts or less around 14Z tomorrow across

all terminals.



AEH



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Dry weather is expected to continue throughout the entire region

today with minimum relative humidity values between 30% and 40%.

20 ft winds will be out of the southwest at 5 - 10 mph. Gradual

moistening will accompany a warming trend through this weekend

with minimum relative humidity values persisting between 30% and

40%.



&&





.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...None.

MO...None.

MS...None.

TN...None.

&&



$$



PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB

AVIATION...AEH