FXUS64 KMEG 071114

AFDMEG



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Memphis TN

614 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 602 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



-Significant river flooding will continue this week.



-Cool and dry weather is expected through Wednesday.

 

-Patchy frost is possible over the next couple of nights as lows 

 drop into the 30s in some places.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(Today through Sunday)

Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



Significant river flooding will continue across the Mid-South over

the next few days. Luckily we are looking at a relatively dry 

stretch of weather for the next week which will allow tributaries 

to gradually recede. Attention will then shift to the main stem 

Mississippi which will rise into flood stage over the next few 

days. 



Clouds are gradually breaking up across NE AR and the MO Bootheel

this morning and this clearing push across the forecast area

today. A cool airmass will continue over the region today with 

highs only in the upper 50s and lower 60s or about 10 degrees 

below normal. A reinforcing cold front will push through this 

evening with high pressure settling into the OH Valley by Tuesday 

morning along with diminishing winds. Good radiational cooling 

conditions will result in lows in the lower to mid 30s across 

northern parts of the Mid-South which will result in patchy or 

areas of frost. A Frost Advisory for NE AR, the MO Bootheel and 

West TN is in effect for late tonight into early Tuesday. A few 

32 degree readings are possible along the KY border. 



Tuesday will be very cool with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s 

followed by another night of possible frost. Southerly return flow

will start up Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure shifts to 

the Atlantic Coast. Temps will respond with highs in upper 60s to

lower 70s Wednesday afternoon and lower to mid 70s Thursday. A 

large upper trough and associated surface low will move through 

the OH Valley Thursday and Thursday night bringing a chance of 

showers to the region. A few thunderstorms are not out of the 

questions thanks to fairly steep mid level lapse rates. This will 

be a low QPF event so it will not add to the flooding problems. 



Cool high pressure builds in for the end of the week into the

weekend. Cool temps with high in the 60s and lows in the 40s will 

return for Friday and Saturday. Much warmer weather is on tap for

early next week as upper level ridging strengthens over the region

and highs push 80 degrees. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



Ceilings will continue to improve today with VFR CIGs areawide 

this evening. Winds will begin veering southwest today, but a 

reinforcing front tonight will return winds to a northerly 

direction.



ANS



&&



.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-018-026-

     028.



MO...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-115.



MS...None.

TN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for TNZ001>004-

     019>022-048>055-088>092.



&&



$$



PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM

AVIATION...ANS