FXUS64 KMEG 070230 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 930 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 921 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 -Significant river and areal flooding will continue into next week. -Cool and dry weather is expected Monday through Wednesday. -Patchy frost is possible over the next couple of nights as lows drop into the 30s in some places. && .UPDATE... Issued at 921 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Skies remain cloudy across the Mid-South this evening with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. While most of the rain has exited the region, some patchy areas of drizzle have developed over areas east of the Mississippi River. The drizzle should not last much longer. Current forecast seems good for now. ARS && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Strong southwest flow is in place across the Midsouth keeping us cloudy. A weak disturbance moving through the mean flow has produced a narrow line of light showers which is currently moving across north Mississippi and West Tennessee. These showers should move into Alabama and Middle Tennessee bringing an end to a very wet beginning of April. Much of the Midsouth has already received over ten inches of rain less than a week into the month. As a result, nearly all of our river forecast points are elevated or in flood and will likely remain elevated through the upcoming work week or longer. A longwave trough will shift over the Mississippi River Valley early Monday and east of the Midsouth by early afternoon. As the axis shifts east of the area and high pressure builds in from the west, cooler and dry conditions will return to the Midsouth. We may even be cool enough for patchy frost Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Expect morning lows in the low 30s to low 40s and highs only in the 50s Tuesday for most of the Midsouth. Warmer temperatures return to the Midsouth after midweek. Expect highs in the middle 60s to middle 70s. A ridge will slowly build along the west coast and Intermountain West midweek resulting in northwest flow across the middle and lower Mississippi River Valley. Return flow will begin west of the Mississippi River Wednesday afternoon and we could see a few showers across the region by Thursday. At this time precipitation totals do not look significant and the threat of severe storms appears minimal. Friday and Saturday should be mild and dry. 30/Sirmon && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 MVFR/VFR CIGs were noted upstream northern AR and southern MO late this afternoon. Typically, southeastward progress of improving conditions is partially offset by diurnal cooling, but expect the boundary layer to remain relatively well-mixed overnight. 00Z TAFs reflect a conservative improvement at MEM overnight, but will continue to monitor trends. Daytime heating mixing will accompany push of drier air into the Midsouth after 12Z. Conditions should rapidly by mid to late morning, likely several hours later at TUP. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...PWB