FXUS64 KMEG 060017 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 717 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 655 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 -A High Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect through tonight. Total rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 inches along and north of a Helena-West Helena to Holly Springs, MS to Savannah, TN line. This is not your average flood risk. Generational flooding with devastating impacts continue across much of the Midsouth. -Severe storms and excessive rainfall are expected to continue into tonight. -An Moderate Risk of severe weather is in effect for much of the Mid-South into tonight. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 Generational Flooding continues to have devastating impacts across a large portion of the Midsouth and will continue through much of the night. Additionally, a risk of tornadoes continues across much of north Mississippi. Conditions should improve Sunday with cooler dry conditions expected next week. Later this evening, as the disturbance approaches the Mississippi River Valley, the front will abruptly stall and return south- southeast sweeping across most of the Midsouth before midnight. Conditions are most favorable for tornadoes from now through midnight in northeast Mississippi, where the airmass is undisturbed and quite unstable. Flooding and Flash flooding also remain a major threat. Flash flooding warnings are already in effect for much of the Midsouth with additional warnings expected. Flooding will likely become the more significant threat later this evening and overnight. 30/Sirmon && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 716 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 Widespread light to moderate rainfall will continue across all TAF sites through at least tomorrow morning. Prevailing TSRA will be most prevalent over the next 6 hours or so at TUP, before becoming more scattered overnight. Elsewhere, embedded TSRA will end around 06/06Z. Winds will shift to the northeast and north overnight. Low CIGs and VSBYs will continue as well. Conditions may not improve until the following period. AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058. MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ113-115. MS...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MSZ001>005-007-008- 010>014-020. Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for MSZ006-009-015>017- 021>024. TN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...AC3