FXUS64 KMAF 251126 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 626 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 625 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 - Areas of fog developing this morning over the Permian Basin. Some localized dense fog is possible. - Much drier conditions are expected Saturday night through next weekend. - A cold front Monday night/early Tuesday morning brings below- normal temperatures through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Nighttime Microphysics shows areas of fog developing over Hobbs, New Mexico this morning. Areas of patchy fog are expected to develop early this morning across portions of Lea County and the Permian Basin due to recent rains, leftover water vapor, light winds, and clear skies. Localized dense fog may occur over some areas. Fog should mix out by mid-morning as surface heating occurs and winds pick up a little. Winds behind last night's Pacific cold front has shifted northwesterly to northerly. Efficient radiational cooling will support a cool start to Saturday morning, with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Afternoon highs remain below normal, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s for most. There is a low (10-30%) chance of showers across the northeastern Permian Basin, but are expected to move east by the afternoon. Warmer and drier conditions are forecast Sunday as the upper-level trough departs to the east, allowing for an upper-level ridge to move into our area from the west. Afternoon highs climb into the 80s for most except for 70s in higher terrain. Greening && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Much of the Long Term forecast remains on track. West Texas and Southeast New Mexico remain under northwesterly flow aloft Monday, with ridging centered to the southwest of the region. Temperatures are forecast to top out a solid 8-12 degrees above normal (mid-to- upper 80s, 90s along the Rio Grande), aided in part by westerly downsloping winds at the surface. Confidence has increased amongst ensemble members that late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, a rather potent cold front will move across the region. This sends highs Tuesday plummeting into the 60s and low 70s for much of the area (4-7 degrees below normal for most). Continuing cold air advection on the back of northerly surface winds will yield temperatures even 2-4 degrees cooler Wednesday. Meanwhile, lows look to bottom out in the upper 30s and low 40s for most locations Wednesday and Thursday mornings. In fact, the current forecast indicates portions of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, as well as parts of far northern Lea County, may experience lows close to freezing! Naturally, we will keep a close eye on how those temperatures trend in subsequent forecast packages. Otherwise, temperatures start to warm again towards the end of the week and into the weekend, though highs only look to make it back closer to normal (highs in the low-to-mid 70s). As far as rain chances go, ensembles still suggest we will not be recovering any moisture anytime soon, so PoPs are nil through the extended. Sprang && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Satellite imagery shows fog across portions of the Permian Basin. Areas of patchy fog are expected until around 14Z/15Z this morning. As such, have opted to include BR for fog at MAF and HOB. Brief MVFR (and localized IFR) VIS is likely for areas that see fog. INK and PEQ could see some fog this morning, but confidence in those terminals seeing fog is lower. Therefore, have left BR out of these TAFs. Amendments will be made as needed. Aside from the morning fog, VFR conditions are forecast for the remainder of this period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 73 52 81 53 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 75 49 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 86 55 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 78 53 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 68 50 74 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 73 48 81 51 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 73 42 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 73 53 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 73 53 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 76 48 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...55