FXUS64 KLZK 251150 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 650 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 -Unsettled weather conditions will linger through the weekend; the threat for severe weather is low. -Early next week system is trending drier, however rain chances remain in the forecast ahead of an approaching cold front. -Below average temperatures are expected in part to weekend precipitation/cloudy skies and passage of next weeks cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Light stratiform rain was ongoing across portions of W and NW AR this Saturday morning. This activity was associated with an approaching upper level closed low invof Srn Plains which was cutoff from the main steering flow situated over the Nrn CONUS. Elsewhere across the state, skies were mostly cloudy and temperatures were hovering in the upper 40s to lower 60s. Today, the aforementioned upper low will slowly progress Ewrd across the Srn Plains. Associated upper level energy is expected to pinwheel out ahead of the apparent low and move across AR this morning and afternoon with an associated uptick of precipitation. Rain chances will really begin to ramp up heading into this evening/overnight into the first half of Sunday as the main upper feature moves across the state through Sunday. Low ceilings and at times patchy fog are expected to accompany the passing low. Precipitation will linger through much of Sunday before winding down from SW to NE through the late afternoon/evening hours. In total, weekend rainfall amounts could range from around 1" N, 2- 3" W, 1-2" Cntrl, and upwards of 2-4" over Srn AR. Probabilistic guidance has been consistent with painting Srn sections of the state with the highest rainfall potential and likewise notable decrease in QPF probabilities heading Nwrd towards AR/MO border. Severe weather appears unlikely due to cool ambient temperatures and unfavorable parameter space. Given higher rainfall amounts over Srn AR, isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible and serve as the main event hazard. The greatest rainfall rates and QPF is anticipated to occur from Saturday afternoon to Sunday afternoon. This upper closed low should advance E of the MS River by Monday. While drier conditions are expected briefly, cloudy skies are expected to linger a bit longer. On the heels of this system will be another deepening closed low within background NWrly flow located across the Cntrl third of the CONUS. Rain chances will return to the forecast albeit QPF amounts on the much lower side. Current forecast calls for a couple tenths of an inch upwards of half an inch of rainfall. A surface low and resultant cold front is expected to develop beneath the deepening upper low. This cold front should sweep across the state either Tuesday or Tuesday night, timing remains uncertain. Behind this front, dry and air advection will be very notable. Low temperatures should be in the mid/upper 30s to mid 40s with highs only reaching the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 VFR conds should give way to MVFR CIGs, then IFR CIGs as an upper low moves into the region today. SHRA/RA activity should increase in coverage and intensity as the low moves overhead this evening into Sun AM period. Mainly IFR conds are expected overnight when precip coverage is maximized. Winds should be E/SE between 10-15 kts. Conds will be slow to improve on Sun as SHRA and low CIGs linger. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 72 54 60 52 / 50 90 90 60 Camden AR 68 58 70 56 / 90 90 60 20 Harrison AR 61 52 58 50 / 70 90 80 30 Hot Springs AR67 57 68 55 / 80 90 70 20 Little Rock AR 69 58 64 56 / 70 90 80 30 Monticello AR 73 59 70 57 / 70 90 80 30 Mount Ida AR 66 56 69 54 / 90 90 60 20 Mountain Home AR 65 52 58 50 / 50 90 80 30 Newport AR 75 56 61 55 / 30 90 90 60 Pine Bluff AR 73 58 67 56 / 60 90 80 30 Russellville AR 67 57 65 55 / 80 90 60 20 Searcy AR 72 55 62 54 / 50 90 90 50 Stuttgart AR 74 58 65 57 / 50 90 90 40 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...70