FXUS64 KLZK 250541 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1241 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 -Unsettled weather is anticipated Friday through Sunday night; overall severe weather threat remains low at this time. -Early next week system is trending drier compared to 24 hours ago; however, some rain chances remain with the cold front. -Seasonal to below average temperatures are expected in part to increased precipitation/clouds and early next week cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Regional WSR-88D radars depicted showers/thunderstorms ongoing over portions of OK and TX early this Friday morning. Across AR, clouds were on the increase with a few spotty showers approaching the AR/OK border. Temps were in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Synoptically, a cutoff upper shortwave trough was situated over the Four Corners region. Further N, the main jet spanned from WA Nwrd into Canada (location of ridge axis) then SEwrd through MN to the Appalachian Mtns (location of trough axis). The aforementioned compact cutoff/closed low will slowly progress Ewrd once the larger scale trough translates Ewrd. This closed low will approach AR today into Saturday, pass overhead Saturday into Sunday, before ejecting Ewrd on Sunday into early Monday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage this afternoon over Wrn AR as forcing for ascent increases across this portion of the state. As such, high temps this afternoon should top out in the 60s to near 70 degrees across far W and NW AR. Further S and E, highs may approach 80 degrees with broken cloud cover noted. A piece of upper level energy will eject out from the upper low and track across the state Friday night/Saturday increasing PoPs across a large part of the state. Likely rain chances are expected by Saturday afternoon into first half of Sunday with the arrival of the upper low. It is during this period of time when QPF should be the greatest, ranging from 1- 1.5". Rain chances will gradually diminish from SW to NE on Sunday as the system begins to move away from the region. When all set and done, the QPF forecast ranges from around 1" N, 1-2" Cntrl, to 2-4" over Srn AR. Due to this system being a cut off feature, a notable drop in temperatures is not expected as the system exits the region. Main changes in this forecast, compared to 24 hours ago, comes early next week. Ensemble and deterministic guidance is trending towards a drier frontal passage Monday into Tuesday owing to N and NE surface winds. While this trend has been towards a drier solution, a few showers and or stratiform rain could be possible along and ahead of the front but severe weather appears unlikely due to aforementioned surface wind components and lack of instability, moisture, and CAPE advection. Drier and colder temperatures should filter into the state in the wake of Tuesday's frontal passage beneath NW upper flow. Temps next week should range from the upper 40s and 50s for lows ahead of the front, to the upper 30s to mid 40s for lows behind the front. High temps should top out in the 60s and 70s ahead of the front to 50s and 60s behind the front. While lows have already been in this range this season, it is high temperatures which will be the most noticeable with this cool down. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 VFR conds overnight should give way to MVFR then IFR CIGs on Sat as upper level low pressure moves over the region. SHRA/VCSH activity should increase as the low moves across the state. PoPs are expected to expand Ewrd on Sat. IFR CIGs are expected by Sat afternoon with an anticipated uptick of precipitation Sat afternoon and night. Winds should be E/SE around 10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 73 54 61 52 / 50 90 90 60 Camden AR 69 58 71 56 / 90 90 60 20 Harrison AR 62 52 58 50 / 70 90 80 30 Hot Springs AR 68 57 68 55 / 80 90 70 20 Little Rock AR 70 58 64 56 / 70 90 80 30 Monticello AR 75 59 70 57 / 70 90 80 30 Mount Ida AR 67 56 70 54 / 90 90 60 20 Mountain Home AR 66 52 59 50 / 50 90 80 30 Newport AR 75 56 62 55 / 30 90 90 60 Pine Bluff AR 74 58 67 56 / 60 90 80 30 Russellville AR 69 57 66 55 / 80 90 60 20 Searcy AR 73 55 63 54 / 50 90 90 50 Stuttgart AR 75 58 66 57 / 50 90 90 40 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...70