FXUS64 KLZK 190523 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1223 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 -Dangerous heat will persist across the state for another couple days before some relief is seen. -Isolated showers/storms are possible again today, with microbursts possibly producing strong wind gusts in a few storms. -Rainfall may be a little more widespread Tue-Wed as a cold front moves across the state. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Another day of dangerous heat is expected across the state and heat headlines have been expanded to include extreme heat warnings for portions of eastern, central and western Arkansas. High temperatures on Sunday were fairly extreme in nature, with KRUE hitting 106 F for an afternoon high. Many other reporting stations hit the century mark as well. These numbers were close to yesterday's NBM90 values and utilized some of that data to forecast today's high temperatures. Isolated showers/storms possible once again today, mainly during the afternoon/evening hours. Main concerns will again be microbursts that could produce very localized wind damage, as well as a few heavy downpours. H500 ridging will begin to expand west across the western CONUS over the next few days which will provide mid-level NW/N flow across the region. This will help push a cold front through and as the front moves across the area, precip may become a bit more widespread. Will have to watch for isolated severe storms given the heat and associated extreme instability in place near the boundary. Some areas could begin to see relief on Tuesday with more of the state expected to see cooler temps by Wed-Thu. Will monitor latest trends to see if/where heat headlines are needed over the next couple days. Will continue to see temperatures closer to normal through the upcoming weekend with a break in heat headlines possible for several days. Another front may move across the state by early next week which could provide below normal temperatures for late August across Arkansas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 VFR conditions will be seen through much of the period with variable sfc winds at less than 10 kts. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Tuesday afternoon and evening and could briefly impact area terminals. Greatest concentration of precip is expected across northern AR. Some precip could linger and drift south after 20/00z through the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 101 72 94 71 / 40 50 50 30 Camden AR 101 73 97 72 / 20 10 50 30 Harrison AR 98 70 91 68 / 40 50 50 20 Hot Springs AR 103 74 97 72 / 30 30 60 30 Little Rock AR 101 75 96 74 / 20 30 50 30 Monticello AR 101 75 98 73 / 10 10 50 20 Mount Ida AR 100 73 96 72 / 20 30 60 30 Mountain Home AR 99 71 92 69 / 40 50 50 20 Newport AR 101 73 94 72 / 20 40 50 20 Pine Bluff AR 101 74 96 72 / 10 20 40 30 Russellville AR 104 75 97 73 / 30 40 50 30 Searcy AR 101 73 95 72 / 20 40 50 30 Stuttgart AR 101 75 96 73 / 10 30 40 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>006-014-015-024-052-053-062-063-066>069-103-113-123-137- 140-141-212-213-221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341. Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017-025-031>034-039-042>047-054>057-064-065- 121-122-130-138-230-238. && $$ DISCUSSION...67 AVIATION...67