FXUS64 KLZK 190424 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1124 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 -A trend of increasing temperatures will be felt across Arkansas over the forecast period -High temperatures from Thursday through Saturday will likely be 20 to 25+ degrees above average across the state compared to normal values for this time of the year -A dry cold front which is expected to move from north to south across Arkansas on Sunday into Sunday Night will bring temperatures back down to near normal for this time of the year && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 The main weather story through the weekend will be the rapid climb of high temperatures, especially from Thursday through Sunday, which are forecast to be 20 to 25+ degrees above average for this time of the year. Daily max high temperature records on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will likely be met or exceeded across many locations in Arkansas. An upper lvl region of high pressure will be entrenched over the Southwestern region of the CONUS promoting northwesterly flow across Arkansas. At the sfc, a warm front has lifted across the state overnight and a shift to winds out of the southwest will be noted today. Additionally, at the sfc, a region of high pressure will remain and effective WAA via the upper lvl heat dome building across the Southwestern region of the CONUS will become elongated into late week and into the weekend couple with warm, dry southwesterly winds at the surface. Latest NBM and various model solution outputs (both deterministic and probabilistic) continue to show an agreement for possible record breaking high temperatures on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday across Arkansas. Saturday's high temperatures continue to appear the most prolific with northern Arkansas forecast high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s... central Arkansas forecast high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s (a few locations may reach the mid 90s)... southern Arkansas forecast high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Heat index values do not appear to be a concern as the airmass will be dry overall and a persistent wind will be present keep any heat index values near the actual air temperature. However, such an increased temperature change may be be a shock to people and animals (especially vulnerable populations), caution and heat safety are encouraged despite the lack of concerning heat index values as acclimation to heat of this magnitude during this time of the year is not to be expected for people or animals. On Sunday into Sunday Night, a dry cold front will move from north to south across the state. In response, this will bring temperatures overall back to values that are near average for this time of the year. Into the upcoming workweek, temperatures will gradually increase and rain chances will be nil. The front is not expected to usher in any rainfall as precipitation outlooks over the next two weeks across Arkansas are signaling below average opportunities for precipitation. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Expect VFR flight category for the entire duration of the forecast period across all terminals. Surface winds will begin light and variable at most terminals before becoming established out of the south-south to southwest later Thursday morning. The sites of KHOT and KPBF have been designated as "AMD NOT SKED" due to a lack of observations from a communication issue. Maintenance techs have been made aware of the situation and are working on a solution && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 48 80 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 48 80 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 50 83 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 48 79 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 48 79 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 50 78 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 49 80 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 45 81 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 46 77 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 49 78 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 47 82 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 44 79 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 48 76 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74