FXUS64 KLZK 061121 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 621 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1124 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 -Strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible overnight/Wednesday morning...mainly isolated severe threat -Locally heavy rainfall possible...potentially along an axis along/south of I-40 corridor -Cooler/calmer conditions expected Wednesday night into the rest of the week into the weekend. -Another round of active weather possible late weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1124 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 SFC cold front continues to drop south/SE late this Tue evening...with most if not all convection observed so far with this event occurring post frontal. Mid-level warm air/capping inversion continues to hold...combined with the persistent cloud cover resulting in lack of significant heating during the afternoon hrs has kept most activity at bay. SHR has remained impressive enough however...with 40-60+ kts...which has caused most struggling updrafts to shear apart. As a result...the overall threat for SVR Wx has decreased considerably. However...some isolated strong to briefly SVR convection may still be possible along/ahead of the SFC front if the front and LLJ can overcome the increasing CIN. What may develop could be some locally heavy rainfall as elevated convection may redevelop and train over the same areas behind the front later tonight into the morning hrs on Wed. The areas that could see the heavier rainfall would be in a general east/west corridor over central sections...or maybe along/south of the I-40 corridor. This may continue even as the cold front continues to push further south towards the AR/LA border shortly after sunrise...as advertised in the later runs of the hi-res guidance. Given the front should likely be along or even south of the AR/LA border by late morning on Wed...the overall threat for SVR Wx should remain mainly south of the CWA for Wed daylight hrs. However...there could still be some potential for strong/briefly SVR elevated convection that could generate a large hail threat. This will likely be more limited to far SERN sections. Cooler and calmer conditions will then be seen behind the front for late Wed night through much of the work week. Chances for convection do return to the forecast by sometime over the weekend as a new cold front moves into the region late Sat into Sun. More strong to SVR convection may be possible with this activity given the time of year. However...details regarding exact severe weather details will need to be ironed out in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026 Mix of IFR/MVFR CIGs are expected today over Cntrl/Srn sites as Sct SHRA/TSRA move across the region behind a cold front. Winds will be N/NErly at around 10 kts. Over Nrn AR, mainly VFR conds are expected with PoP chances ending later this morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 61 48 70 48 / 50 10 0 0 Camden AR 65 50 71 50 / 80 60 0 0 Harrison AR 62 44 66 45 / 20 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 63 49 72 49 / 80 30 0 0 Little Rock AR 63 50 70 50 / 80 40 0 0 Monticello AR 65 53 71 52 / 90 80 0 0 Mount Ida AR 64 48 72 47 / 70 20 0 0 Mountain Home AR 64 45 67 44 / 20 0 0 0 Newport AR 61 50 69 50 / 50 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 62 51 69 50 / 80 60 0 0 Russellville AR 64 49 71 48 / 50 10 0 0 Searcy AR 62 48 70 47 / 70 20 0 0 Stuttgart AR 62 52 69 52 / 80 50 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...70