FXUS64 KLZK 060527 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1227 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 The warm front that has been the axis of almost all significant weather the last 48 hours has finally started to back out to the SW this afternoon and evening to the east. There is still overrunning on the boundary with elevated rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. With how saturated the soils are even these showers could still cause localized impacts. Emergency managers all over the state have told us that many roads are still water covered, so any travel is dangerous at this point. Overall the models did a good job with this event with a large swath of 8-12" along I-30 and I-57 with pockets of 12" which MRMS indicated the rainfall rates were at a 200 year flood at times last night into today. As the low pressure system moves to the east there will be some wrap around rain along the occluded boundary over NW Arkansas. This rain will be light and should not have a major impact on the ongoing flooding in the area. The more significant aspect of this frontal boundary may be a quick shot of rain/snow when colder air drops the freezing level to 800-1000ft. Any areas in elevated terrain in that area may get a quick shot of snow. The QPF is low enough there is not any accumulation expected, but a dusting on some elevated surfaces is possible, but no clouds will be colder than -3C so not much ice crystal growth potential. It will be cold though for early April with wind chills below freezing Sunday morning. As the ridging builds into the area and ends this very long week of active weather there will be one shot of winter like air for the area. Northern Arkansas will see temps right around to under freezing, especially in far NW Arkansas. Widespread frost will be over northwest and north Arkansas so plants need to be covered or taken inside in that area. Windchill will be below 40 degrees for most of the state so it will feel cold on Monday. Ridging will dominate Monday through Tuesday before a quick moving cold front will move through Wednesday into Thursday. There doesn't appear to be much moisture with this boundary but it does have abnormally cold temperatures aloft on GFS which could lead to scattered low top showers as the upper level feature pushes through. Overall the week looks much less active next week, but we will go from a May/June type feel to a Nov/Dec type feel real quick, which shows how abnormal the current long wave patter is right now. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 IFR ceilings will prevail through 00z. Some improvement is expected after 00z. MVFR visibility due to fog and drizzle will prevail during the first half of the valid TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 36 64 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 40 63 40 67 / 10 0 0 0 Harrison AR 31 61 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 38 62 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 40 62 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 43 61 43 66 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 36 64 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 32 62 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 38 62 38 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 41 61 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 36 64 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 38 64 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 42 61 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...55