FXUS64 KLZK 060425 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1125 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1124 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 -Strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible overnight/Wednesday morning...mainly isolated severe threat -Locally heavy rainfall possible...potentially along an axis along/south of I-40 corridor -Cooler/calmer conditions expected Wednesday night into the rest of the week into the weekend. -Another round of active weather possible late weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1124 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 SFC cold front continues to drop south/SE late this Tue evening...with most if not all convection observed so far with this event occurring post frontal. Mid-level warm air/capping inversion continues to hold...combined with the persistent cloud cover resulting in lack of significant heating during the afternoon hrs has kept most activity at bay. SHR has remained impressive enough however...with 40-60+ kts...which has caused most struggling updrafts to shear apart. As a result...the overall threat for SVR Wx has decreased considerably. However...some isolated strong to briefly SVR convection may still be possible along/ahead of the SFC front if the front and LLJ can overcome the increasing CIN. What may develop could be some locally heavy rainfall as elevated convection may redevelop and train over the same areas behind the front later tonight into the morning hrs on Wed. The areas that could see the heavier rainfall would be in a general east/west corridor over central sections...or maybe along/south of the I-40 corridor. This may continue even as the cold front continues to push further south towards the AR/LA border shortly after sunrise...as advertised in the later runs of the hi-res guidance. Given the front should likely be along or even south of the AR/LA border by late morning on Wed...the overall threat for SVR Wx should remain mainly south of the CWA for Wed daylight hrs. However...there could still be some potential for strong/briefly SVR elevated convection that could generate a large hail threat. This will likely be more limited to far SERN sections. Cooler and calmer conditions will then be seen behind the front for late Wed night through much of the work week. Chances for convection do return to the forecast by sometime over the weekend as a new cold front moves into the region late Sat into Sun. More strong to SVR convection may be possible with this activity given the time of year. However...details regarding exact severe weather details will need to be ironed out in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Mixed MVFR to IFR condns are expected over the FA thru the new PD as a cdfrnt moves thru. Expect CIGs to deteriorate to IFR lvls areawide overnight, w/ asctd TSRA moving along the cdfrnt. Precip wl lkly continue thru at least 12Z Wed mrng over Cntrl to SErn AR. NWrly winds wl ensue behind the frnt, w/ SWrly to Srly winds ahead of the frnt. Some variable and convectively driven wind gusts may occur, but have excluded mentions for now due to uncertainties. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 70 50 63 48 / 90 100 50 10 Camden AR 83 61 67 50 / 10 80 80 60 Harrison AR 66 46 61 44 / 80 60 10 0 Hot Springs AR 76 55 64 49 / 50 90 80 30 Little Rock AR 73 54 62 50 / 50 90 80 40 Monticello AR 76 61 67 52 / 20 80 90 80 Mount Ida AR 75 55 64 48 / 50 80 70 20 Mountain Home AR 65 46 62 45 / 90 60 10 0 Newport AR 71 53 63 50 / 90 100 50 10 Pine Bluff AR 77 56 63 50 / 30 90 90 60 Russellville AR 76 52 64 49 / 50 90 5010 Searcy AR 71 51 63 47 / 60 90 70 20 Stuttgart AR 75 55 62 52 / 40 90 80 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...62 AVIATION...72