FXUS64 KLZK 031116 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 516 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1216 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 -Chances for rainfall today as a cold front moves through the state -Slight cooler conditions expected by mid-week behind the cold front -Warmer temperatures will return by late this week through the weekend...with a dry forecast returning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 SRLY flow allowed for much warmer conditions across the Natural State on Mon afternoon for most areas...with highs warming into the 50s and 60s. However...some 40s were still noted across NERN sections. Weak SRLY flow continued overnight...which should increase during the rest of the morning hrs this Tue...with moisture levels on the rise. This increased moisture will be ahead of an approaching upper disturbance and SFC cold front...that will move SE through the state through this afternoon/evening. As the SFC front progresses SE today...chances for SHRA will increase along/ahead of this front...with precip developing across SWRN sections by sunrise. Expect this precip to spread further NE into the late morning hrs...then as the front drops SE...expect the precip to end from NW to SE this afternoon. The front will drop SE of the state by mid/late evening...with precip ending across the CWA around this same timeframe. Best POPs look to remain across SERN sections...which will also be where the highest QPF will exist. Even so...QPF will remain around a quarter inch or less across the far SERN sections. While cooler conditions will be seen for Wed behind this cold front...temps will only dip into the upper 30s to upper 40s for highs. This cool down will be short-lived as SRLY flow returns by Thu. Temps will warm back to around or even above normal by late this week and through the weekend. Chances for precip through the rest of the forecast should remain low as well. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 Low and mid level cloudiness is streaming into state from Texas and Oklahoma early this morning from the west and southwest. A cold front will dive southeast into the state later this morning allowing winds to veer from the south/southwest to the North/ northwest behind a weak cold front by this afternoon. The front will push through northern terminals closer to noon with a few gusts up to 18 kts possible. The front will move through afternoon hours across central and southern terminals. CIGs will drop to MVFR/IFR after sunrise across all terminals and persist through the afternoon at all terminals. Ceilings will lift late this afternoon into the evening across northern terminals and tonight across central terminals. MVFR/IFR ceilings will likely stick around late in the period at KLLQ being closer to the deeper moisture and frontal boundary. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 53 28 43 24 / 40 0 0 0 Camden AR 60 33 51 27 / 90 10 0 0 Harrison AR 49 26 41 24 / 10 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 59 31 49 26 / 60 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 55 31 46 26 / 70 0 0 0 Monticello AR 58 34 47 28 / 90 20 0 0 Mount Ida AR 60 31 50 27 / 60 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 49 26 42 23 / 10 0 0 0 Newport AR 50 28 42 22 / 60 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 56 32 46 25 / 90 0 0 0 Russellville AR 58 30 48 26 / 30 0 0 0 Searcy AR 54 28 45 22 / 60 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 52 31 43 24 / 80 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...62 AVIATION...76