FXUS64 KLUB 251128 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 628 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 628 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 - Locally dense fog early this morning. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms linger today for much of the area. - Dry conditions through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 An upper low continues to track southward and is currently centered over the far southern Panhandle. Much of its associated vorticity advection and moisture are now well north and east the CWA. Areas of fog are possible this morning, however in any case low cloud cover will prevail given the residual low-level moisture. This will keep lows from getting too chilly, although light northerly winds bring them down to the upper 40s over western areas and mid 50s off the Caprock. A broad trough moving over the Pacific Northwest will steer the low on a more northeasterly track through the day today. As it becomes more compact over central Oklahoma, models continue to indicate wrap around precipitation into this afternoon. While there remains some uncertainty with regards to how far west it will reach, mentionable PoPs have been retained for the entire CWA with slightly higher PoPs off the Caprock. Any showers or thunderstorms should move out by the evening hours with skies clearing overnight into Sunday in the wake of the low as westerly surface winds develop. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 A weak ridge protruding between two upper lows will move over our area Sunday bringing pleasant conditions with mostly sunny skies and highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s. An interesting upper pattern will begin to develop thereafter. Mostly zonal flow will continue south of the aforementioned Pacific Northwest trough bringing continued dry conditions Monday with slightly warmer highs. Tuesday will see a cutoff low quickly ejecting out of the main flow pattern and strengthening as it moves southward towards the Gulf coast. A surface cold front and resultant breezy northerly winds will drop highs by nearly 20 degrees and bring Wednesday morning lows close to freezing in some areas. Northerly flow will continue Wednesday with even cooler high temperatures. Weak ridging behind the low and surface winds switching back to SW will allow for temperatures to somewhat recover to around 70. Outside of a quickly passing trough early Saturday, strong high pressure looks to develop to the west next weekend and beyond. Nonetheless the entire long- term looks precipitation free for the time being. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Widespread IFR stratus with brief pockets of MVFR and even VFR will continue through mid morning before turning over to VFR from W-E ahead of an upper low. Some SHRA/TS about 40SW LBB are on track to scoot east in the coming hours (possibly grazing LBB). Can't rule out additional TS later today near CDS, but this is too conditional at this time. After midnight there is another window for fog and/or stratus at LBB and PVW. This will be revisited in later TAFs. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...93