FXUS64 KLUB 211842

AFDLUB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lubbock TX

142 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



- Critical fire danger is expected across Sunday as a strong cold

  front moves through the region.



- A brief cooldown is expected on Monday, but unseasonably hot

  weather will return Tuesday through most of next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



It's the same tune, different day. The upper high remains over the 

Desert Southwest. The upper high has moved just slightly east from 

it's previous position on Friday. This is allowing for the warmer 

temperatures expected this afternoon, mid/upper 90s on the Caprock 

and around 100 across the Rolling Plains. A surface lee trough is 

slowly beginning to develop per surface obs. Despite this, we should 

only see winds top out around 10-15 mph this afternoon with a few 

gusts to 20 possible as the surface pressure gradient remains 

relaxed. The upper high will begin to flatten this evening through 

tonight. During this same time a cold front will push southward from 

the Northern Plains and is progged to reach our northern zones by 

noon Sunday. Breezy conditions are expected behind the cold front 

with sustained winds being just below advisory criteria. Despite 

relative humidity increasing to 20 percent or higher behind the cold 

front, stronger winds will create critical fire weather danger as 

fuels will already be extremely dry and will be slow to respond to 

the increase in humidity. While temperatures will be noticeably 

cooler behind the front, high temps will still likely reach into the 

mid/upper 90s on the Caprock and around 100 across the Rolling 

Plains.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Sunday night through next Friday)

Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Monday will be an average of 20-25 degrees cooler than Sunday thanks 

to the cold front. Cooler temperatures will be short lived, however, 

as the upper high is expected to build once again by Tuesday just as 

surface winds veer to the south. The upper high will move eastward 

through mid-week and eventually settle over the Southern Plains. 

While this will warm highs back into the 90s, we should avoid highs 

near 100 as the high will be weaker than the current upper high, 

H588 vs H594. Even this warm up should only last through the end of 

the week. Models have been in fairly decent agreement with bringing 

another cold front into the region by late Friday/early Monday. This 

front will also be dry with no precip.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



VFR will persist this TAF cycle. A 40-50 knot southwesterly LLJ will 

develop overnight, leading to periods of LLWS. A cold front will 

bring a northerly wind shift to the terminals around midday Sunday. 

Otherwise, given the unseasonable heat, be sure to check the density 

altitude.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



The Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM CDT this

evening.



Critical fire weather danger is expected area wide Sunday

afternoon. A cold front will move through the region beginning at

noon Sunday and will bring breezy northerly winds. 20 foot wind

speeds are expected to average 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Despite relative humidity increasing to 20 percent or higher

behind the cold front, extremely dry fuels will be slow to respond

as ERCs remain in the 95+ percentile. The Sunday Fire Weather 

Watch will remain in effect for the time being.



&&



.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.



Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening 

for TXZ021>044.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...51

LONG TERM....51

AVIATION...23