FXUS64 KLUB 190011

AFDLUB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lubbock TX

711 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025



 - Scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the region today

   with the possibility of heavy rain fall and localized flooding.



 - Storm chances will continue Tuesday through early Thursday 

   morning.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Tuesday afternoon)

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025



Today looks to be a rinse and repeat of yesterday. The upper ridge 

over south central CONUS will continue to retrograde toward the 

southern Rockies through today as a potent upper trough tracks 

towards the Pacific Northwest. Although there will be a shift in the 

mid to upper level pattern, the monsoonal moisture plume will remain 

in place over the region today. Subsidence from the upper ridging 

will prevail, however with southerly surface upslope flow and a 

moist atmosphere, we can expect scattered showers and thunderstorms 

across the region this afternoon through the evening once convective 

temperatures have been reach. Similar to yesterday, timing and 

coverage of storms are uncertain at the moment. Storms that do 

develop are expected to remain sub-severe, however with PWATs around 

1.5 inches, we can expect periods of heavy rainfall with the 

possibility of localized flooding. Severe wind gusts cannot be ruled 

out either. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually 

diminish west to east through the overnight hours into early Tuesday 

morning. 



The upper ridging will continue to gradually retrograde Tuesday and 

center over the Four Corners. The atmosphere will begin to gradually 

dry out as the ridging retreats, however similar to the set up for 

storm chances today, scattered showers and thunderstorms are 

expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. PWATs continue to be around 

1.5 inches, therefore can expect heavy rainfall and possible 

localized flooding with Tuesday's storms. Temperatures remain about 

seasonal normal with lows in the 60s to 70s tonight and highs in the 

90s Tuesday.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025



A wavy surface troughing pattern will be present across the 

southern High Plains, with the respective surface trough 

connecting to a lee cyclone in NW KS; and this cyclone should be 

embedded along a southward-moving, synoptic cold front spawned 

from a leading shortwave trough ejecting into the Upper Midwest. 

The forecast becomes a bit murky with respect to the timing of the

synoptic cold front, which may be convectively-reinforced and 

accelerate its forward momentum southward towards W TX. Recent 

initializations of the NAM have caught onto this, and the NAM does

particularly well with handling faster anafrontal movements 

relative to other suites of NWP guidance. NBM PoPs appear to have 

a better reflection of this as well, with the highest PoPs 

delineated late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Large-

scale forcing for ascent will increase via the leading edge of the

intense 250 mb jet streak arcing around the apex of the 598 dam 

subtropical ridge, contributing to 20 kt of flow throughout the 

steering layer. There is the potential for convection to become 

semi-organized along the cold front as it progresses southward, 

and ultimately, the timing of its passage will dictate the spatial

extent of PoPs that follow heading into Wednesday evening. It is 

still too soon to know the exact mesoscale evolution of storms 

late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, but prospects for at least a 

few swaths of locally heavy rainfall appear possible. Thereafter, 

increasingly confluent flow aloft as the subtropical ridge expands

will stifle storm chances through the weekend, with high 

temperatures near seasonal norms.



Sincavage



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 710 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025



Storms at PVW and LBB should largely be history by about 02Z with

VFR prevailing outside of convective activity. Another chance of

tstorms will exist on Tuesday afternoon.



&&



.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...10

LONG TERM....09

AVIATION...26