FXUS64 KLUB 061903 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 203 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Chilly tonight with areas of frost possible. - Warm, dry, and breezy conditions through mid-week with a brief cool down expected Thursday and Friday behind a passing front. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Lingering clouds were being vanquished from N-S this afternoon in the wake of an upper trough axis exiting western Texas. Light northerly surface flow within a broad surface high will turn westerly tonight as the high takes aim on the Lower Rio Grande Valley for Monday. Unlike last night's pesky clouds that kept lows milder than expected, tonight should prove chillier even with light downslope winds. The coldest lows around 20, perhaps even lower, should favor the Silverton and Vigo Park area where a diminishing snowpack should linger through the night. With such moist soils and high RHs expected overnight, areas of frost seem reasonable but have opted against frost or freeze headlines as many areas remain short of their average last freeze dates. Light winds and clear skies carry through Monday with highs making strides well into the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 The unsettled weather pattern comes to an end today with much quieter weather expected for the extended period as longwave ridging begins to build across the western CONUS throughout the week. This will lead to relatively northwest flow aloft to prevail overhead of the FA. Meanwhile surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies will influence southwest winds to prevail across the FA through much of the week, with breezy southwest winds on Wednesday and Thursday as we see the surface low transit east out ahead of an approaching FROPA late Wednesday into Thursday. These southerly winds in addition to mostly clear skies and increasing thickness values will allow temperatures to gradually warm into the mid to upper 80s through Wednesday, before a brief cooldown on Thursday and Friday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. By the weekend, the axis of the longwave trough should be centered over the region, which will influence temperatures back into the upper 80s and 90s Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 VFR with light winds and a few fair weather cumulus this afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...93