FXUS64 KLUB 060514 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1214 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Occasionally heavy snow ending tonight from W-E. Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory remain in effect until 1 AM Sunday. - Quiet weather returns on Sunday with temperatures rising well above normal by midweek. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 The heaviest snow band has remain parked over much of the central South Plains this afternoon immediately north of a 700 mb low estimated near Lamesa. This low was focusing a robust conveyor of moist 30 knot easterlies in the 295-300K layer which is helping sustain a thicker DGZ growth zone relative to areas farther northwest where snowfall rates have been markedly lower. Current satellite and radar trends suggest this band of heavy snow will continue to slowly pivot northeast and expand into the Childress area. Temps become more marginal off the Caprock and as such we don't expect much in the way of impactful accumulations there until after sunset when an inch or less seems reasonable. Areas on the Caprock mainly from Lubbock and Plainview to Floydada and Silverton could easily see 2 to 4 inches with lesser amounts on roads. Snow will decline in coverage and intensity from W-E tonight as the lagging 500 mb low tracks from southeast NM this evening into southwest OK by daybreak. Stratus will also break out allowing temps to crater into the 20s in many areas, so any wet roads will be prone to black ice until late morning Sunday. Surface ridging tomorrow will make for lighter winds and despite mostly sunny skies, we still expect highs to struggle to get out of the lower 50s given such saturated soils and lingering snow cover in places. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 A shift to much quieter weather awaits the new week thanks to weaker WNW flow ahead of a transition to longwave ridging over the western CONUS by the end of the week. This will spur lee troughing and very mild southwesterly breezes that peak on Wednesday ahead of a weak cold front making a run for the area Thursday morning. Models agree nicely in longwave ridging reaching our doorstep by the end of the week with highs rebounding into the 80s to near 90. Moisture profiles all week look very paltry following our recent and widespread soaking. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 IFR/MVFR CIGs/VIS will continue for the next few hours before skies clear and VFR returns through the remainder of the TAF period. Generally light northerly winds will persist before switching to SW tonight. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ021>024- 027>029-033-034. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ025-026- 030>032-035>037-039>042. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...19