FXUS64 KLUB 060330 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1030 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 - Cooler Wednesday and Thursday. Possible light freeze/frost across the far southwest Panhandle Thursday morning. - Warmer Friday through Sunday and into next week with possible elevated to critical fire weather conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Easterly winds will develop from east to west overnight behind a cold front. This will allow for further saturation in the lower levels resulting in low cloud cover overnight, particularly across the far SE Panhandle. Overcast higher cloud cover elsewhere will persist elsewhere moderating low temperatures in the 40s and 50s despite being post-frontal. An positively tilted upper trough tracking over the Rockies on Wednesday will lead to a surface low developing over eastern New Mexico. While it is difficult to determine how far east they will get, in general breezy westerly winds will occur on the Caprock by the afternoon. Highs however will remain cooler than today, ranging from the low 70s to the north to the low 80s southward. Much of the QPF downstream of the aforementioned trough will be over the southeast US and given its tilt, will be quite shallow as it makes its way near our area late Wednesday into early Thursday. Nonetheless, some slight precipitation chances have been retained over the far southern Panhandle for this time period. All surface winds will switch out of the NE by early Thursday morning, and will gradually diminish through the overnight, remaining light and variable thereafter. Cooler temperatures will result, with highs across the area only reaching the mid 70s. Mostly sunny skies will prevail. Quiet conditions will continue into Thursday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 An upper ridge will approach from the west and surface winds will switch back to southwesterly Friday morning ushering in a warmer airmass. Highs will return to the upper 80s and low 90s. All models indicate a cutoff upper low tracking eastward across the Big Bend region late Friday into Saturday. Much of its associated moisture advection out ahead of it will be well to the south and east of the CWA (if its current track holds). However it should be close enough to potentially trigger some showers off the Caprock. A number of upper waves will move through Saturday, but again all moisture should stay off to the east. A broad upper ridge will build over the area Sunday into early next week, bringing warm and dry conditions and elevated to critical fire weather concerns. Highs could approach triple-digits by next Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 MVFR CIGs are expected to develop at KCDS after midnight and persist through Wednesday morning. Lesser chances of MVFR will occur at KPVW, however has been included in the TAF for a more brief period as well in the morning. KLBB should remain VFR through the TAF period. Breezy generally easterly winds will switch to westerly for KLBB and KPVW Wednesday afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...19