FXUS64 KLIX 251139 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 639 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Storm system that's currently impacting parts of central and eastern parts of Texas will be moving eastward towards Louisiana tonight into tomorrow. The closed upper level low is slightly more north over southern OK and the TX panhandle. This will deepen as it moves eastward. This will increase the gradient winds more into the 15-20 mph range. Not enough to hit any wind advisory criteria on land but areas will be blustery especially closer to water. There is a minor coastal flooding threat during high tide cycles for east/southeast facing shores but it should be limited to only around this coming high tide and perhaps one more on Sunday. Thunderstorm wise, this event will have two rounds, one moving through around early Saturday afternoon and then a second wave overnight Saturday into Sunday. Precipitation wise, this looks to be a decent rainmaker as PW values surge well over 1.5 in and maybe a few areas could reach 2 in closer to the coast. This could easily have 1 to 3+ inches areal rainfall with localized higher amounts possible when both of these waves move through. For the first set of storms, it will enter a less than ideal environment with not so great parameters. Instability is relatively low (<500 J/kg) and low shear. So storms will likely struggle to maintain themselves as they move through SE Louisiana. The storms forecasted to come through overnight Saturday/Sunday look to have a marginally better environment to work with with slightly better instability, shear and lift. So it will very much depend on the timing of the storms and if all these parameters can align in just the right way to get severe. Damaging winds would be the primary threat but there is a little bit of SRH that could support brief tornadoes. Things should be calming down by late Sunday night with the frontal passage and cooler and drier air filtering in. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Friday night) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 After the storms pass on Sunday, it'll be relatively quiet with relatively low PoP chances. Another cold front will sweep through the area on Tuesday bringing cooler than average temperatures and drier conditions. High temperatures will be in the 60s and lows in the 50s and possibly into the upper 40s especially north of I-12. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Current conditions VFR at all terminals. Frontal system impacting the area from west to east begins around 15Z bringing CIG and VIS and TSRA decreasing conditions as low as IFR. Timing of impacts are handled with PROB30 coding. Wind gusts should also be mentioned with a few gusts possible in the 20-25 kt range. && .MARINE... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Strengthening onshore flow ahead of an approaching storm system will result in hazardous conditions for small craft through at least Saturday night. Conditions will gradually improve through the day Sunday. Another high pressure will then begin move into the area && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 79 65 75 60 / 60 80 100 40 BTR 81 67 79 62 / 70 80 100 30 ASD 81 66 79 61 / 30 50 90 50 MSY 84 71 82 66 / 40 60 90 40 GPT 80 69 77 64 / 20 30 80 60 PQL 81 65 78 61 / 10 20 80 70 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ070- 076-078. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MSZ086. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ SHORT TERM...BL LONG TERM....BL AVIATION...DS MARINE...BL