FXUS64 KLIX 241131 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 631 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Updated at 631 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Big upper level trough is sliding through the eastern half of the US while surface high that was more or less over our area will move eastward as well. Onshore flow will also begin to pump moisture back into the area on Friday. Next big feature to move though will be a cutoff low an an associated surface low moving into the ArkLaTex area late Saturday into Sunday. We'll have one more day of relatively cool low temperatures in the 50s with maybe a dip into the upper 40s for north of I-12 but with the moisture coming in Saturday morning lows will be closer to the 60s. Right now the main concern is heavy rainfall as this system will be relatively slow as it moves through the area. This straddles into Sunday but rain could start on the western half (west of I-55) as early as Saturday afternoon. A secondary concern is the potential for some minor coastal flooding for east/southeast facing shores on Saturday as water starts to pile around high tide cycle. Decided against an advisory for Friday since it is borderline but it'll definitely be close Saturday and Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday night) Updated at 631 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 The bulk of the rain chances will fall late Saturday into Sunday before exiting the area eastward late Sunday night. Overall looking at areal average of 1 to 3 inches but could see higher isolated totals. For Sunday, there is some potential for stronger, possibly severe thunderstorms. Biggest issue is there is not a lot of instability in the area with <500 J/kg overnight Saturday and 500-750 J/kg during the day. Shear isn't too bad with bulk shear in the ~40kt range. There may be a brief window of some tornado potential near the Atchafalaya River Basin but overall the environment feels kind of lacking. Once Monday rolls through, we may still have some on and off isolated showers and storms but it's not appreciable amounts of rain expected. Next cold front to pass through will be Tuesday with more pleasant temperatures coming in through starting Wednesday. We could see low temperatures in the low 40s along/north of I-12 and for closer to the coast it'll be upper 40s to low 50s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 VFR through this taf cycle. && .MARINE... Updated at 631 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Onshore flow will strengthen over much of the coastal waters tomorrow into the weekend. Hazardous conditions looking increasingly likely for small craft, so went ahead and put cautionary headlines starting late tonight then stepping up to a small craft advisory for most of the coastal waters by Friday afternoon. These conditions are forecasted to last through the weekend before beginning to calm somewhat overnight Sunday into Monday. Going into the new week, it should generally be more benign outside of some isolated chances of showers and storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 82 59 80 63 / 0 0 40 60 BTR 83 64 83 67 / 0 0 50 60 ASD 82 62 81 66 / 0 0 20 40 MSY 84 70 85 71 / 0 0 30 50 GPT 80 64 80 67 / 0 0 10 30 PQL 83 58 81 64 / 0 0 10 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ SHORT TERM...BL LONG TERM....BL AVIATION...TE MARINE...BL