FXUS64 KLIX 192333 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 633 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 633 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 - Above normal temperatures will be in place through at least the middle of next week. - No rain for at least a week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Current upper level analysis shows a ridge centered over southern California and Arizona which is spread across the the western half of the US while a trough encompasses the eastern half of the country. The trough axis is well east of the CWA and currently entering the western Atlantic. The KLIX 12Z sounding shows quite a dry column outside of the lone saturated layer aloft near 600mb. But with 0.5" PW and subsidence from the upper level ridge means little to no cloud cover and definitely no rain. For the overnight period, as the upper level trough slides farther east, heights aloft increase incrementally and onshore flow will develop as surface ridge center moves east as well. That wind direction will start to increase dewpoints and combined with increasing 500mb heights...overnight lows jump up about 10 degrees from this morning. NBM has been running a bit on the warm side. Latest forecast is colder than MAV/MET for the most part across the CWA which is roughly where this morning's lows fell, so didn't make any changes on that aspect. But did consider it. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 The post frontal air mass currently in place will continue moderating trend that started today as the upper level ridge centered to the west spreads farther east across the southern US. Heights increase slightly from this which helps bring up those temps. Should be looking at lows in the 50s to 60 and highs in the 80s, which is several degrees above normal. A weak shortwave embedded within the northeastern periphery of the ridge will be sliding across the southeast CONUS Saturday. While it may stunt high temps slightly, not expecting perceivable impacts. Rain chances remain nil through the period as well as the upper level ridge centered west of the CWA generally stays put and remained expanded across the south central US. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight period. Some patchy fog could temporarily drop visibilities into MVFR category at KMCB, KBTR and KHUM near sunrise. Otherwise, no impacts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Surface high pressure centered just northeast of the local area will slowly drift southward to the northern Gulf before centering more towards the central Gulf. This will keep wind generally light and variable for a couple more days. By this weekend, southwesterly flow will be come better established through Sunday. That ridge will then drift back north towards the northern Gulf again, resulting in subsiding winds and minimal wave/seas impacts through at least Wednesday. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...DS MARINE...ME